Small Wars Journal

Read and discuss this new #SWJEssay: Iran in the Box: The Coercive Architecture of the 2026 Iran War and Its Strategic Implications 👤 By: CAPT Lance B. Gordon, USN (Ret.) This piece examines the logic behind Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion; rather than seeking an immediate collapse of the state, the coalition implemented a framework designed to place the regime inside a durable system of constraints. Capt. Gordon details how the coalition utilized six specific instruments of pressure to narrow Tehran's strategic options: 1️⃣ Leadership targeting to impose psychological and organizational costs. 2️⃣ Missile and drone degradation to reduce immediate retaliatory capacity. 3️⃣ Proxy network reduction to weaken the regional system of indirect escalation. 4️⃣ Economic and maritime pressure focusing on energy infrastructure like #KhargIsland. 5️⃣ Demonstrated reach to undermine the strategy of geographic delay. 6️⃣ Sustained strike capability as a standing threat to enforce compliance. This campaign has effectively altered the regional balance of power, yet the final state of the conflict remains in flux. Capt. Gordon identifies five possible trajectories that could define the coming decade: internal change or regime collapse, constrained survival under long-term limits, negotiated compliance through monitoring, a deterrence-based ceasefire, or a return to unrestricted rebuilding. While the military degradation is substantial, the true test of this coercive architecture lies in whether the international community can maintain the "box" around the regime once major combat operations conclude. 🤔 💭 𝘐𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘨𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘬𝘦𝘦𝘱 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘰𝘹, 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨𝘭𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘢𝘪𝘭 ❓ 🔗 : https://lnkd.in/gDvv6AjV

New #SWJPerspectivePiece: Corporate AI as the Military’s Weakest Link 👤 By: Michael Cody, independent theorist and analyst.   The article argues that the U.S. military’s rapid integration of generative artificial intelligence reflects a familiar institutional tendency to prioritize speed and utility over governance, creating latent strategic risk. While experimentation with AI is not inherently problematic, its normalization as routine infrastructure erodes control over data, operational language, and internal reasoning processes that are central to military power. The primary danger lies not in autonomous AI behavior, but in human overreliance and the gradual erosion of discipline as these tools become embedded in everyday workflows. #GenerativeAI amplifies these vulnerabilities by accelerating the production and dissemination of sensitive information while fostering institutional complacency through procedural compliance rather than true custodianship. The challenge is cultural: without a willingness to impose restraint and treat #AI as sensitive cognitive infrastructure, the #DepartmentofDefense risks repeating past failures at greater scale and speed. 🤔 💭 𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘈𝘐 𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘺 𝘦𝘹𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘺𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘷𝘶𝘭𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘦 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘴 ❓ Let's discuss! 🗣️ 🔗 : https://lnkd.in/gFe4ZDbG

New #SWJPerspectivePiece: Testing The Limits of Aegean Deterrence, Gray Zone Warfare, & Sovereignty 👤 By: Elias Diakos Deterrence is often measured by the presence of clear signals and the avoidance of high-intensity conflict. However, this analysis of Turkish overflights above Greek islands argues that stability produced by inaction may actually be a form of crisis postponement. When violations of international norms become daily occurrences, the tactical response of interception risk transforming into a predictable, cost-free ritual that erodes sovereignty over time. This case study from the Eastern Aegean serves as a warning for other contested regions like the South China Sea and the Arctic. It questions the traditional reliance on ambiguity and explores how "automatic mechanisms" might be necessary to link provocative acts with predefined consequences. 𝘛𝘰 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤 𝘢𝘮𝘣𝘪𝘨𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘮 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯𝘵 ❓ 𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘥𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘢 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘺’𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘤 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘶𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯❓ For the latter, Mr. Diakos suggests that the answer lies in moving from a reactionary posture toward a framework of deterrence that refuses to let the violation of international law become the new standard. Let's hear your thoughts about this case study! 🗣️ 🔗 : https://lnkd.in/gZTQVzC9

Korean News & Commentary Director’s Picks for March 30, 2026 1. Iran's war against the US and Israel is being fueled by North Korean weapons, expert warns 2. North Korean laborers describe brutal forced labor in Russia: 'Working like a cow, earning nothing' 3. China steps up North Korea connections as regular Beijing-Pyongyang flights resume 4. Unification minister says joining U.N. resolution on N.K. human rights made through interagency coordination 5. Belarusian leader seeks to mediate between US and North Korea: Minsk 6. Russia’s top news agency reaches deal with North Korea to combat ‘fake news’ 7. South Korea to Pilot Unmanned GPs on Eastern Front from 2029 8. Unified Command Systems Key to Enhancing Integrated Defense Efficiency 9. North Korea Showcases Female Special Forces Combat Skills 10. North Korea's Special Forces 'Magic Show' Stuns Kim Jong-un 11. Gov't urges public not to worry about supply of standard garbage bags amid Middle East crisis 12. Price of chaos: Why a swift resolution in the Middle East is in S. Korea’s best interest 13. A strategy without a strategy: Where is Seoul’s North Korea policy heading? 14. The bloody brilliance of Park Chan-wook's 'JSA' https://lnkd.in/eKn855vH

National Security News & Commentary Director’s Picks for March 30, 2026 1.  Defining Cognitive Warfare for the NDAA: MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF WAR 2. The decapitation dilemma 3. Why U.S. Special Operations Forces Will Focus More On The Cyber Domain 4. A Toothless Iran? Missile and Drone Strikes Show It Can Still Inflict Pain. 5. Review: Raising the Bar – The School of Advanced Military Studies and the Introduction of Operational Art in U.S. Army Doctrine 6. Pro-Ukrainian partisans disable electronic warfare equipment in Russia's Novgorod Oblast, group claims 7. Anduril Wants to Own the Future of War Tech. Mishaps, Delays, and Challenges Abound 8. Exclusive | Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran’s Uranium 9. In an Asymmetrical War, Iran Seeks an Edge With Its Information War 10. Official highlights new Chinese warfare undermining Taiwan's democracy 11. SOF Weekly Brief – Mar 30, 2026 12. Iran in the Box: The Coercive Architecture of the 2026 Iran War and Its Strategic Implications 13. SF Confidential | Three Ways SOF Sees the Fight 14. Corporate AI as the Military’s Weakest Link 15. Opinion | In Israel, wartime reality doesn’t match what you see on the internet 16. Iran's war against the US and Israel is being fueled by North Korean weapons, expert warns 17. Zelensky Tours Bombarded Mideast in Search of New Rich Allies 18. The Web of Patronage Keeping Iran’s Regime in Control 19. The Sisyphean Struggle for Influence Campaigning in Competition 20. What the Iran War Means for China https://lnkd.in/ebyGRj3v

Read and discuss our latest essay in our publishing partnership with The U.S. Army Command and General Staff College: "Transforming Army Education: The Leadership Laboratory" 👤 By: David Duckett, a facilitator for the Army Management and Staff College, a graduate of the MBA program at Arizona State University, and a veteran of the U.S. Army 🔱   "Modern warfare is characterized by continual change, driven by rapidly evolving technology and the growing interconnectedness worldwide. To achieve success in this complex environment, as outlined in the Army’s operating concept, the United States Army requires a new model of leadership. Leaders must demonstrate agility, adaptability, resilience, and innovation to navigate uncertainty and ambiguity. The predictable battlefields of the past have evolved into multidomain operational environments where information, cyberspace, and cognitive factors are as decisive as traditional combat power. This environment requires not only tactical proficiency but also cognitive dominance." 🔗 : https://lnkd.in/gdtECTis Note: This Linkedin article is a preview. Please click the link above or at the bottom of this preview to explore the full piece. 💡 Learn more about the partnership here: https://lnkd.in/g6qmm6KB

National Security News & Commentary Director’s Picks for March 29, 2026 1. Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran 2. Was the Iran War Caused by AI Psychosis? 3. Cognitive Warfare: The Fight You’re Already In 4. Prediction Markets Are Now Pricing Trump’s ‘America First’ Wars 5. First Ukraine, Now Iran: A New Era of Drone Warfare Takes Hold 6. Opinion | In Iran, the future of war is coming into view 7. Regime Change in Cuba 8. Why Every High School Student in Latvia Is Learning to Shoot a Gun 9. US lawmakers say they'll visit Taiwan before Trump's summit with China's Xi 10. Former NSA chiefs worry American offensive edge in cybersecurity is slipping 11. Ukraine can teach the US about the future of warfare 12. The Guardian view on China and Iran: the war poses bigger questions for Beijing than where to get its oil | Editorial 13. Book Excerpt: The Information State - Politics in the Age of Total Control 14. Iran war leaves Asia with a defence problem 15. In an Asymmetrical War, Iran Seeks an Edge With Its Information War 16. Trump runs out of options by sir Lawrence Freedman 17. Escalation Without War: China's New Strategy in the Indo-Pacific https://lnkd.in/eZeMEJ6x

Korean News & Commentary Director’s Picks for March 29, 2026 1. Korea needs a unification vision beyond denuclearization 2. N. Korea's Kim oversees ground test of high-thrust solid-fuel missile engine: KCNA 3. Calling North Korea a separate state raises a constitutional question 4. ‘North Korea is not Iran’: Former Pyongyang envoy explains why Kim Jong Un isn’t losing sleep 5. North Korea orders AI and new energy push, threatens managers who inflate results 6. Sanctioned goods flow through resumed NK-China trains 7. North Korea conscripts 80% of graduates in spring draft 8. North Korea spring cleaning Sinuiju 9. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Soldiers Returned from Russia Deployed on Tour to Promote "Military Spirit" and "Heroism" (1) "They Fought So Bravely Even the Russians Were Envious" 10. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ "Three Unexcused Absences Lead to Mine or Construction Work" — Enforcement Shifts from Police to Labor Bureau as Absenteeism Goes Digital 11. Iran war leaves Asia with a defence problem 12. South Korea’s Integrated Cyber Defense Framework: Active Cyber Defense and Reactive Responses 13. Pentagon skips release of troop review, raising USFK concerns, but immediate impact unlikely 14. USFK sets up nuclear planning unit outside Combined Forces Command 15. Kim Jong-un Showcases ICBM Engine for U.S. Strike Capability https://lnkd.in/efyaBVc5

📰Hot off the press from our inaugural Small Wars Journal - Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University fellow, George Headley: “Magazine depth: Rapid depletion of missile stockpiles in Iran raises concerns about US readiness” New data from the Payne Institute for Public Policy reveals a burn rate that deeply affects our munitions readiness and the resilience of the defense industrial base. While the tactical success of systems like #THAAD and the Precision Strike Missile remains clear, the logistical reality is sobering. We are witnessing a rapid contraction of specialized inventories that could take years to restore at current production levels. This depletion introduces a critical tension between sustaining active operations in Iran and maintaining the necessary deterrent posture in the Indo-Pacific. The struggle lies in the industrial capacity to regenerate that technology under the pressure of a transparent, high-attrition environment. As the U.S. moves to quadruple production of "exquisite class" weaponry, the intersection of fiscal constraints, critical mineral scarcity, and lengthy qualification cycles creates a complex bottleneck. This analysis examines the specific depletion percentages of Tomahawks and Patriots, the transition from ATACMS to PrSM in a combat environment, and the structural hurdles facing our primary defense contractors. 🤔 💭𝘌𝘹𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴, 𝘺𝘦𝘵, 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘳𝘶𝘴𝘩𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘨𝘯𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘥. 𝘞𝘩𝘺 𝘥𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘴❓𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘸𝘢𝘺 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮❓ Let's discuss! 🗣️ 🔗: https://lnkd.in/gyVUwksY Thank you, Col. (Ret.) Mark Cancian and Lt. Col. Jahara "FRANKY" Matisek (PhD), for lending your time and expertise to this timely investigation by George. Cronkite News | David Maxwell | Jan K. Gleiman | Todd Gillman | Amos Fox, Ph.D. | Arizona State University #NationalSecurity #DefenseIndustry #MissileDefense #StrategicDepth #OperationEpicFury #Logistics #SmallWarsJournal #DefenseIndustrialBase #SWJxCronkite Note: This article is a preview. Please click the link above or at the bottom of this preview to read the full analysis.