AVC Turing

Loft Orbital, the "AWS for Space," Recently Hit Unicorn Status: Why Satellite-as-a-Service Matters SpaceX revolutionized launch. Planet democratized Earth observation. Now, Loft Orbital is doing the same for satellite access itself.   The Opportunity: - $500M+ in bookings on $330M raised—1.5x capital efficiency - 5+ satellites operational, 25+ customers, zero mission failures - First mover in "virtual missions", deploy software to orbit like pushing to AWS - Backed by BlackRock, Temasek, and Microsoft Azure Orbital - Approaching profitability with triple revenue streams The Reality Check: - 20-30% revenue concentration in single customer (EarthDaily constellation) - Virtual missions’ platform only 1 year operational, adoption unproven at scale - Public comps down 80-90%: Spire, Satellogic, Planet all distressed - SpaceX Starlink could commoditize the market if they offer payload hosting - $1B valuation requires flawless execution for investor returns   Why This Matters: Loft solved the fundamental problem: building satellites takes years and costs millions. Their breakthrough? Deploy software directly to orbit. Process data in space. Return insights in real-time. Wildfire detection, ship tracking, GPS jammer identification, without building hardware.   The Broader Point: Satellite infrastructure is transitioning from ownership to access. The Satellite-as-a-Service (SataaS) market: $5.4B today, $15.2B by 2033, part of a $1.8T space economy by 2035. Just as AWS eliminated the need to own data centers, Loft eliminates the need to own satellites. Companies like Loft (operational, revenue-generating, institutional-backed) represent category-defining opportunities for those who understand sector fundamentals.   The space economy isn't coming. It's operational, generating $500M+ in bookings, and scaling now. What are your thoughts on Space as an asset class? #SatelliteIndustry #AerospaceInnovation #SpaceTech #PrivateBanking https://lnkd.in/eXPJSVtA

Stoke Space’s Moonshot: 100% Reusable Rockets and a $2B Valuation SpaceX solved first-stage reusability. But the upper stage (40–50% of total launch cost) still burns up after every mission, leaving a massive gap. Stoke Space is attempting the breakthrough: a fully reusable medium-lift rocket.   Why this is unprecedented: - Raised $990M to tackle upper-stage reusability with a metallic, actively cooled heat shield made of 30 thrust chambers. - Developed one of only two full-flow staged-combustion engines in existence (the other is SpaceX’s Raptor), in just 18 months, a record. - Secured $5.6B in NSSL contracts before a first orbital flight. That almost never happens.   The investment case (and gap they aim to fill): - Medium-lift window between Rocket Lab and Falcon 9 (approx. 3–7 tons). - 24-hour turnaround potential vs. expendable stages. - Team stacked with Blue Origin propulsion veterans. - Possible 20x cost reduction with downmass capability.   The reality check: - Zero orbital launches so far. Upper-stage recovery remains unproven. - Competition is intensifying: Starship, Neutron, New Glenn. - Burn rate estimated at $120–200M per year; timelines could slip.   Why this matters now: - NSSL pre-launch approval signals urgent U.S. government demand for alternatives to SpaceX. - If flight tests succeed in late 2025/early 2026, Stoke becomes a logical strategic target for defense primes.   This is a 5–7 year moonshot: high-risk, pre-revenue, engineering-execution driven. Space infrastructure is maturing: Operations (Axiom), Manufacturing (Apex), Turnaround (Relativity). Stoke represents the moonshot category: fundamental hardware risk but transformational potential.   Track closely. For most, wait for flight validation.   What’s your perspective on space as an emerging asset class? #SpaceX #AerospaceInnovation #PrivateBanking #SpaceTech #AlternativeInvestments   https://lnkd.in/expb5bRg

The "Uber for Space": Impulse Space Launch gets you to orbit. Moving between orbits (the "last mile") costs 30-50% of mission expense.   Impulse Space: orbital transfer vehicles by Tom Mueller (SpaceX Employee #1, Merlin architect, 400+ missions, zero failures).   $525M raised. 2/2 successful missions. $200M+ backlog.   The Opportunity: - Mira operational: proven LEO/MEO transfers - Helios Q4 2026: LEO to GEO in <24 hours - $200M+ contracts: VICTUS, NRO, SES, NASA - 10-100x faster than electric propulsion - GEO rideshare: $10-25M vs. $50-150M - Only second full-flow staged combustion engine globally (after SpaceX)   The Risk: - Helios untested (Q4 2026 first flight critical) - Key person risk (Mueller ~60, first-time CEO) - Pre-profitability until 2027-2028 - Starship threat if ultra-low-cost GEO access - Government concentration (~60% revenue)   Why It Matters: Defense validated (VICTUS, NRO). Strategic acquisition target for primes (Lockheed/Boeing/Northrop). Tom Mueller: most reliable rocket engine ever built. Now solving space logistics. Operational today ($35M+ revenue 2024). Profitability path 2027-2028. First-mover advantage. Q4 2026 Helios flight is inflection point. Space infrastructure: launch (SpaceX), stations (Axiom), manufacturing (Apex), logistics (Impulse).   High risk, proven founder, compelling opportunity. What are your thoughts on Space as an asset class? #SpaceX #AerospaceInnovation #PrivateBanking   https://lnkd.in/eJU2QuZn

The Turnaround Bet: Relativity Space Eric Schmidt's first CEO role since Google. Zero successful orbital launches. $2.9B backlog. Late 2026 target.   Brilliant or catastrophic?   The Good: - Schmidt CEO (March 2025), $34B net worth, orbital data center vision - $2.9B backlog: OneWeb ($1.2B+), Intelsat, government - Terran R: 23.5 tons LEO reusable - Cape Canaveral site + NASA Stennis facilities - 3D printing enables rapid iteration   The Bad: - Zero successes, $1.3-2.4B invested over 10 years - Only launch failed (March 2023) - Pre-revenue, unclear profitability - SpaceX has 300+ proven flights - Aggressive 2026 timeline, no margin for error   The Ugly: - Investors marked down stakes significantly (2024) - Founders no longer operating - Pivoted from 95% 3D-printed vision - $150-250M+ burn, zero revenue - Another failure likely terminal   Why It Matters: Schmidt didn't take first CEO role in 15 years casually. Thesis: orbital data centers powered by Terran R launches Real assets: launch site, facilities, $100M+ infrastructure, IP. Previous investors wiped out = valuation reset. Binary outcome: $3-6B+ if successful, distressed sale if fails. Late 2026 decides everything.   The Call: Maximum risk, maximum discount. Pure execution bet unlike operational players (Axiom, Apex, Impulse). Schmidt's credibility shifts probability but doesn't eliminate risk. Worth monitoring. For most, wait for flight validation.   The space economy includes pioneers, operators, and turnarounds. This is the latter. What are your thoughts on Space as an asset class? #SpaceX #AerospaceInnovation #PrivateBanking   https://lnkd.in/e2q-mTmW

Space: The Manufacturing Layer SpaceX solved launch. Apex Space is solving satellite production.   The company reached unicorn status in 3 years by mass-manufacturing standardized satellite buses that traditionally take 18-36 months custom-built. They deliver in weeks.   The Bull Case: → Flight-proven technology (18+ months on-orbit) → $522M raised, $350M+ in bank, >$1B valuation (Sept 2025) → 100-200+ satellites/year capacity vs. industry standard of dozens → 70% vertical integration reduces supply chain risk → $100M+ in orders: Space Force, SDA, NASA, BAE Systems, defense primes → Three product lines (100-500kg class) cover market spectrum → Pure-play supplier, no channel conflict with constellation operators   The Bear Case: → Only 3 years old, limited operational history → Heavy capital intensity (facilities, inventory, continuous R&D) → 66% government revenue concentration → SpaceX vertical integration risk if they enter third-party manufacturing → Production scale-up execution challenge → Competition from Lockheed, Boeing, RTX acquisitions in space   Why It Matters: Founders: SpaceX manufacturing veteran (CTO) + serial entrepreneur with exits to Palantir/Zynga (CEO). They understand both hardware scale and government sales. The market opportunity: $1.8T space economy by 2035. $175B+ Golden Dome missile defense program. Thousands of satellites needed for proliferated defense and commercial constellations.   Apex is the "picks and shovels" play, enabling the ecosystem rather than competing with it. Standardized platforms with improving unit economics. Strategic importance to national security. Clear acquisition precedent (defense primes bought Terran Orbital, Millennium, Blue Canyon). High risk. High capital needs. But potentially the dominant commercial satellite bus manufacturer or a strategic acquisition at significant premium.   Space manufacturing is the next investment layer after launch. The companies that crack scaled production will define the sector. What are your thoughts on Space as an asset class? #SpaceX #AerospaceInnovation #PrivateBanking   https://lnkd.in/eCi8j8SA

Beyond Launch: The Space Infrastructure Investment Thesis SpaceX dominates headlines. But the commercial space ecosystem extends to stations, manufacturing, communications, and defense.   Take Axiom Space: the only company with ISS docking rights and $2.2B+ in NASA contracts. Four successful missions completed. Positioned to build the commercial successor to the International Space Station.   The bull case: $1.8T space economy by 2035; low-Earth orbit (LEO) infrastructure like commercial stations forms the backbone First-mover advantage with regulatory approvals competitors lack Asset-light model: Collaborations for manufacturing (e.g., Thales Alenia Space) and launches (primarily SpaceX), minimizing capex. Diverse pipeline: Sovereign programs from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, plus private R&D clients. The bear case: Cash flow pressures and 3-year module delays Leadership instability (3 CEOs in 14 months) >70% government revenue; vulnerable to policy shifts Narrow 2028-2030 execution window as ISS retires Credible competition from Blue Origin, Vast, Starlab   Axiom represents a high-risk, high-reward bet at a critical inflection point. Success establishes them as the dominant commercial LEO operator. Failure likely means distressed acquisition. But here's the strategic insight for private equity: space infrastructure is no longer speculative. Launch costs have dropped 90%+. Reusable rockets are routine. Manufacturing in microgravity is economically viable. Sovereign nations are deploying independent capabilities.   The asset class is forming. Capital intensity is declining. Revenue models are proving out. Space is transitioning from government science project to commercial industry. The pioneers establishing position today will define the sector for decades.   Worth understanding. Worth tracking. Increasingly, worth allocating to. What are your thoughts on Space as an asset class? #SpaceX #AerospaceInnovation #PrivateBanking https://lnkd.in/eySu2YjH