How do you learn from best practices and examples of scenario planning in other sectors and contexts?

1) Read foresight and future reports published by international companies, e.g. Arup's 2050 scenarios published in 2019. Google search 2024 trends and there are heaps of articles on business, technology, workplace trends, etc. 2) Talk to people from different professions, industries, and age brackets. To get a sense of the future, whether about people or environment, talk to the 15-20-year-olds today, who will be creating our world, country, and community, positively or negatively, in 20 years' time. 3) See "op-ed pieces" on LinkedIn and/or Tiktok, and then Google for data/research which may provide evidence on the signal. E.g., Tiktok videos can push the trends out fast and furious, such as quiet quitting and bare minimium Mondays.

1] Identify case studies, research papers, and industry reports from diverse sectors that showcase effective scenario planning. 2] Examine the methodologies used and the results achieved, focusing on what worked and what didn’t. 3] Identify similarities and differences between your context and those studied to gain insights into applicability. 4] Implement relevant strategies within your organization, tailoring them to fit your specific needs and culture. 5] Continuously assess the effectiveness of applied practices and make adjustments based on feedback and outcomes. 6] Foster a culture of knowledge-sharing by disseminating findings and encouraging discussions among teams.

It's about crafting multiple narratives to prepare for various futures, integrating financial projections, risk mitigation, and opportunity seizing. Crucially, engaging key personnel in crafting these scenarios ensures valuable insights are captured, creating organizational resilience against unforeseen events

If you are beginning this process without any history of scenario planning -- in other words, if you're normally not a strategist -- I suggest some "warm up exercises." These are geared towards getting you to think outside your comfort zone. First, do an Empathy Map of your strategic challenge. (If you don't know how, look for Designers or User Researchers who can facilitate this.) Next (1) Broaden, then (2) focus scope to avoid overwhelm: Depending on the challenge, scenarios may look at a 1-3 time horizon, or they could look for 10-30 years. They may look towards the extreme edges -- for example if you're a Reinsurer -- or be interested in crisis planning for those crises that they already know they're exposed to.

Analyzing scenario planning is very important for current and future projects. Look into its goals, participant roles, and methods. Understanding purpose and scope clarifies goals, while diverse stakeholder involvement improves and expands your insights. Methods shape scenario realism, and their communication ensures usability. Outcomes offer strategic foresight, despite potential hurdles like resource demands and possible adaptability to change.

This is wonderful... and yet for novices this may be too much boiling of the ocean. So if you can be this divergent enough to gather a wide range of scenarios comfortably, and then also convergent enough to analyze them all, then go for it! (I love this first diamond....) But if you are reading this because you don't even know where to start, you can prioritize this analysis of methodologies and hone in on the *purpose of creating scenarios* specifically for your organization. If you also know limitations on stakeholder access, that can be a sorting factor, too. If you stay grounded in, first, your own purpose and then secondarily the stakeholders you know that it is possible to engage, this may save some spinning of wheels.

To compare and contrast scenario planning examples, focus on their context, assumptions, and outcomes. Notice how each tackles different challenges, like business growth versus public sector crisis management will have two very different views. Check assumptions' realism across industries, and how scenarios drive actions. Strengths might include diverse insights; weaknesses could be in overlooking rapid changes. Insights from these examples, whether from health's focus on future trends or business's market adaptiveness, guide refining your scenario planning approach.

A note on process here is to be aware of when you're brainstorming (divergent thinking) and when you're analyzing (convergent thinking), and engage the appropriate processes for each. Don't know? Again, your Friendly Neighborhood Design Experts are your friends!

To apply and adapt scenario planning to your own context, look into your best practices from diverse sectors. Begin by understanding your unique challenges and goals. Adapt tools and methods observed in successful examples, to suit your needs. Remember, scenario planning is flexible; tailor it by incorporating all different relevant stakeholder insights, defining objectives, and considering your environmental differences. By customizing these approaches, you create a framework that includes multiple possible futures, enabling informed decision-making and stratey in your domain.

What I always like to do to evaluate and improve my scenario planning, is continuously assess its impact on our strategic decisions and operational effectiveness. Always ask for feedback from all involved to understand the process's strengths and areas for improvement. Innovatively improve your approach, using the new insights and adapting to new contexts. This evaluation ensures your scenario planning remains fresh and that consistently adds value and organizational agility.

Feedback is an important part of any process. (No I didn't use ChatGPT for that sentence!) You will be much happier next year if you carefully design your feedback processes and get buy-in on those as well as the original program.

You can use scenarios to determine / justify your budget for building something infrastructural, whether in NGO, government, or as a cost-center in your company (i.e. your work doesn't generate profits). In a nutshell, create your scenarios, understand your risks, and then assess the probability of the risk occurring and the amount of the loss. The trick here is to think broadly! For example, I've seen this used to justify school music programs (a specific "extra-curricular"). The analysis included information about how music programs affect drop out rates, and -- after a lot more research references -- probabilistic assessments of the end tax contributions of the population of people who drop out of high schools.