How can you determine the best timing for launching an innovative idea?

In my experience the place to start is to learn the customer needs. As an example, when we build the product for low cost connectivity for 2 wheelers, which later got the CES innovation award, we focused on learning the customer needs by talking with the customers at the ground. Meeting people from different countries at the street and parking lots. Sometime the ideas looks great and we start getting married to it. By staying open and focusing on learning the customer’s need by discussing with the customer reveals our internal biases and ensure we understand true customer needs.

The FDV (Feasibility, Desirability, and Viability) framework is an ideal step to understand if your idea can stand out in the market and, if so, what financial factors the company might have to check. This, along with a strong understanding of consumer behavior, market trends, and demands, can help evaluate your idea.

An idea is a bad place from which to launch a business. Begin with a problem. Is it visceral. Then work through a series of stages. I recommend Bill Aulets book (Disciplined Entrepreneurship). Only once you have followed all the stages (testing, feedback, MVP build etc and still feel confident) should you launch.

When evaluating ideas with potential customers, the truth is always hidden somewhere, but it's fragile. Every question we ask carries the very real possibility of biasing the person we're talking to and rendering the whole exercise pointless. This is when you should do the 'MOM Test' by Rob Fitzpatrick - On how to talk to customers and learn if your idea is good when everyone is lying to you. The MOM test is simple, it's basically a few rules to follow in order to craft good questions that even your mom can't lie about. 1. Talk about their life instead of your idea. 2. Ask about specifics in the past instead of generics or opinions about the future. 3. Talk less and listen more. Customer conversations are the key!

In my humble opinion, the first step should always be identifying the (1) PROBLEM - what is the customer's pain or what are the challenges when you're trying to perform a task. A good idea solves a real problem. Next is your (2) SOLUTION - how do you plan to solve this problem, what is the customer's gain, and are you going to reduce/eliminate/reimagine the pain? Then, look into the (3) MARKET landscape, do some research - are there others offering the same solution? Remember, it's okay to have competition. The key is how you can stand out from the crowd, i.e., what are your unique selling propositions (USP). Lastly, talk to at least 10 people to get constructive feedback and see if they are willing to pay for your solution.

In my experience in the technology space, too many founders think that if they build their product people will come, without doing any extensive market research, or engaging with their potential customers. This can help to minimise the risk of failure.

Do your many customer discovery interviews! That will give you, an indication of market readiness. It can also give you market size.

In my experience, launching new health services, testing is really crucial for launching the idea. The cheapest test of new services is "scenario testing" where you test design and a really "MVP" on both patients, health professionals and all other stakeholders. Next stage is development of an MVP service where you start testing, measure benefits, receive feedback, develop, test.. again and again. It is about gathering feedback and evidence so you can stop or continue develop to improve the service.

Once you understand why others have failed with a similar idea, this is the time to innovate. There are many reasons why similar companies failed, but what is the main reason? What is the main 'cost barrier': the cost of an activity that doesn't allow for a profitable solution? Clarify this and then start putting down solutions to go around this challenge. Else, you risk to repeat history.

With all of my products I have followed the same philosophy of testing our idea with real customers as its very crucial. Prototypes, experiments, or MVPs allow you to gather feedback and data, validating or invalidating our initial assumptions. This helps us understand customer behavior, preferences, and pain points. By utilizing tools like the Lean Startup Method or Design Thinking Process, we can effectively design and run tests, measure results, and ultimately refine the idea while reducing risk.

I’d suggest a market analysis is the first step in determining whether there is even a need for the product that you could design in the current step 1. And part of that analysis would include an evaluation of competitors so that you can truly determine whether your product not only meets a need, but also differentiates itself from others in the market so you create a unique selling point.

análise do mercado pra mim é uma das etapas mais importantes quando se pensa em ideias inovadoras. Se eu não tenho informações eu não consigo ter a certeza se estarei sendo inovador ou não. precisamos de dados e aproveitar o máximo as ferramentas estruturais sobre negócios

Actually I would highly recommend to skip this phase. Customers wont give you the insights needed if you develop real innovative products. Instead focus on going to market as fast as possible, but skip the detailed product development phase until you definitely now that there is a product-market-fit. We do this now in one week only. So actually no market-research needed anymore.

This is a crucial step. Identifying your key competitors before launch allows you to reconsider your value proposition. It's okay to have competitors as long as the market is big enough, but the key lies in your unique value proposition. How you can create customer values and make them stay is the essence of success. For example, there are many crowdfunding platforms supporting new ideas, but what makes Lift Women stand out is our focus on women-led businesses, impact, and founders.

Market size & and its expected growth in the upcoming 3-5 years. Is it bigger than €1bln, is the CAGR higher than 20%? If the answer to both is yes you found yourself a good market. The second aspect is to look at the competition landscape. Some of the questions to ask yourself are: - who else is building this? - how far are they? - is the product regionally specific? - winner takes all market? - can I get first customers in under 10k? - is the solution B2B/C/G? The answers should give you a further perspectives on whether you should follow this idea.

Competitor analysis is not just checking what the other players are currently offering, but a thorough analysis should tell you what actions competitors will take when you take an action. Example - What will happen in the market, and how competitors will react when you cut prices or introduce a new product.

It's advisable that you know what the critical success factors in the market are, and who your competition is. Prepare a tracking chart to see the position of each competitor according to the critical success factors. Based on this, you will have the strategic profile of each of the competitors and the way each of them competes. How do you want to compete? Do you accept these factors as critical criteria for competition? Do you want to challenge the market with new competitive factors?

While it is undoubtedly easy and tempting to view competition as a hostile threat, it is also wise to remember that strong market competition can lead to even greater innovation. Assume that the industry or, at minimum, the business model of this conversation is dealing with an area that is newly emerging or completely unexplored. Therefore, if we look at historical examples of these markets, we actually see that the most rapid growth and success these organizations experience is in ecosystems that allow cross-pollination between competitors. Classic examples are the increase of artisans in Venice during the Renaissance or the rise of software and internet companies in Silicon Valley.

Monitoring the competition is a crucial aspect of strategic planning. Utilizing tools like the Competitive Analysis Matrix, Value Curve Analysis, or Feature Comparison Chart enables a detailed comparison of your idea with competitors, helping you identify strengths and weaknesses. Keeping tabs on their products, services, pricing, and innovations allows you to anticipate and respond effectively to market dynamics. Additionally, this ongoing analysis helps uncover potential gaps or niches in the market, providing opportunities for your idea to stand out or address unmet needs. It's a proactive approach to staying agile in a competitive landscape.

When we develop new innovative products there is no need to monitor the competition. Instead go to market as fast as possible. When the competition reacts, we are already working on the next version of our product. This is how you get in the lead.

Na minha percepção não existe um momento ideal de lançamento de um novo produto/ solução no mercado. Existe, sim, o momento mais propício que pode ser acelerado ou postergado, dependendo do nível de validação da solução. As vezes lançar rapidamente uma nova solução, mesmo que ainda em estágio de desenvolvimento, é mais benéfico para a empresa por poder aprender com seus clientes testando o produto/ solução, na prática. Já para soluções mais complexas, com mais tecnologia embarcada, será necessário maior desenvolvimento e testagem antes de ir ao mercado. Acredito que definir bem público alvo, benefícios que a nova solução e analisar concorrência, ajuda na decisão sobre quando é o momento mais propício de se lançar ao mercado.

Time in the market beats timing the market. Timing the market in actuality is almost impossible. However, it pays off to understand trends waves before everyone pays attention to them. Having gotten access to GPT-3 in 2020 for instance gave me an edge. Wished I was not occupied with a different startup then.

Importante nesta etapa é definir os KPIs que irão ajudar a identificar e embasar a aderência da curva de adoção e crescimento da solução... uma boa estimativa de curva de crescimento baseado em premissas consistentes é importante, mas, saber os fatores que a viabilizam, e tomar as decisões rápidas e assertivas de correção, se necessário, podem fazer toda a diferença no sucesso do negócio.

Speaking to sales teams, they will invariably tell me that they need that product 'yesterday' - it cannot be fast enough to beat competition. Over-analysing and thereby delaying a specific market release is neither beneficial nor critical. More important is that any release is part of a larger planned pipeline of continuous improvements. It is the compound effect of ongoing improvements which will help keep you ahead of competition.

Some great pointers have already been written here. In addition, please consider this: You have come up with a product spending money and resources. The 'timing' is bad and you lose out to your competitors. What do you do with the product you are sitting with? How do you monetize it? Can you give a slight twist to your target audience? You may have developed the product keeping large organizations in mind as the customers. Can it be tweaked to cater to a different segment? Maybe mid-size or small organizations. Or even individuals. Can you 'integrate' your product with another, and find a market again using the success of the other provider? Can we have a 2nd run? Maybe. Patience, and preparing for the next cycle can help us here.

If we are talking about timing, well as a rule of thumb the quicker you can come up with an MVP and test this with future customers, the better. As an entrepreneur you got to be ok with continuously iterating and adapting as you go. No one launches a perfect product. It happens over time through market feedback, iterative improvement & continuous innovation ... as they say it's ok to fail but fail fast & adapt.

The beachhead strategy is as relevant for new product launches today as in combat 200 years ago. You only make a first impression once, and your product can either benefit from a strong anchor amongst a well-defined early-adopter audience, or suffer from the 'be everything to everyone' condition. Look for clues to establish your beachhead strategy amongst earlier validation data - what do potential customers associate your product and brand with? what are their favourite features? what could make a buzz and drive sales? The clearer your answers, the better your launch will go, and the more accurate your timing. Last but not least, stay reasonable and within the conservative bounds of your industry's sales cycle expectations.

This list is comprehensive for planning a successful launch, but it's vital to stress that these activities must stem from insights gained through testing with customers. Customer feedback shapes the entire launch strategy, aligning it with actual market needs. Additionally, consider the financial aspect when timing entry into different segments. Assessing the financial attractiveness of various segments influences prioritization, optimizing resource allocation for a more efficient launch. Balancing financial factors with previously determined timing and resources enhances the strategic foundation for a successful market entry.

I think the above mentioned ideas are to be thought of before deciding whether the idea is innovative or not. Once the question accepts the idea is innovative, we have to do market study as to when people have started becoming aware and also convinced to some extent. As and when convincing starts and has gained attention of people such that people in different geographies speak about it, the product should be launched so that practical starts happening. This will give an edge as well as positive returns for the idea/product.

You have to be aware of the development of the market and technologies and assess the size of the market... more than once we've seen products in small markets fail because the blank space determined in the market is way too small. Micro niches aren't feasible for large companies

Is it hype or hope? The Gartner Hype Cycle is a reliable framework related to timing innovation. It tries to show the expected or perceived value that a given innovation or market currently has, which can be a really helpful tool for those seeking to understand when an innovation is just hype, and when it is actually starting to deliver value.

Become obsessed with the problem. We instinctively want to solve and find resolution. Spending time with the problem helps you uncover niche gaps and opportunities

The best precursor of timing for launching a new idea is when you come to know that the idea is novel, and has the potential to be transformed into an enforceable Intellectual property (IP). This should immediately be followed by working on construction of novelty and inventive steps in accomplisihng a robust IP. Launch only & immediately after filing of provisional patent application. If you have been able to create a really good workable idea prioritise on expedited filing & examination to enable early patent grant. Though not always true, Launching an idea with backup of IP is a winning combination for succeeding in its potentially larger commercial proliferation as well as its monetization including fundraise.

Picking timing of a particular launch is well addressed by this article. However, more important than any single launch is the development of a continuous innovation framework/culture and corresponding processes to capitalize on innovative ideas throughout the company. Depending on the idea, the steps to launch may differ. For example, an innovative idea on how to simplify an internal process through digitalization does not need a market study, but may have as much impact as the launch of a new product. The proper innovation framework will consider all potential sources of ideas, have a methodology to assess these ideas and plan for resources to launch the most promising ones through the steps most appropriate to that category.