You're facing high demand during peak production periods. How can you avoid running out of inventory?

During one of our big brand promotions, we were hit by a demand surge so intense that even our buffer stock couldn’t keep up. It was a wake-up call. I realized that past order data alone wasn’t enough. So, I revamped our entire approach—integrating marketing timelines, sales pipeline, and lead conversion trends into our demand forecasts. We also reclassified suppliers based on speed, quality, and supply flexibility, not just price. Now, our inventory system dynamically adjusts to real-time signals, and our supply chain is responsive, not reactive. It taught me that forecasting is not just math—it’s about listening to momentum before it hits you.

1. What to forecast Forecast consumption, not just sales Forecast by SKU Forecast by location Forecast by week or day depending on lead time 2. Methods A. Historical analysis Use 12–36 months of clean data Detect patterns: seasonality, trends, events Clean out anomalies (promos, shutdowns) B. Model-based forecasting Use simple tools for stable products Moving average Exponential smoothing Use advanced tools for volatile products Regression Machine learning (if data supports it) C. Collaborative forecasting Involve sales, marketing, key customers Build consensus on assumptions Update weekly, not monthly Adjust quickly when conditions change

To avoid running out of inventory during peak production times, it's important to plan ahead and stay flexible. Start by closely analyzing past sales trends to forecast demand accurately. Keep a safety stock as a buffer, and build strong relationships with your suppliers so they can support you quickly when needed. Also, consider using inventory management software to track stock levels in real-time. Finally, communicate regularly with your team and suppliers so everyone stays aligned and can react fast if things change. In short, be prepared, stay connected, and use the right tools

Partnering with contract manufacturers or turnkey suppliers to outsource the low complexity, high volume parts during these times of peak production, can open capacity for the high demand and often higher margin items. This flexibility avoids additional fixed cost expense of maintaining surge capacity while minimizing risk of stock outs.

Start by closely analyzing past sales trends to forecast demand accurately. Keep a safety stock as a buffer, and build strong relationships with your suppliers so they can support you quickly when needed. Also, consider using inventory management software to track stock levels in real-time. Eliminating or combining sequential steps.

In our factory we implemented production agility, by reducing the SKU changeover time in production lines to 75%. We achieved this as follows: 1. Eliminating or combining sequential steps. 2. Moving preparation steps outside the changeover routine. 3. Painting the change parts of each SKU with a specific color to visibly identify if all parts are in place. 4. Replacing the plain screw nuts with butterfly type nuts. 5. Installing all spare parts on moving panels. 7. Properly training the production operators. We then reduced the SKU production orders by an average of 50%. In doing so we were able to replace the inventory frequently, which dramatically improved the customer service by eliminating the stock outs.

It is important to be able to track inventory in the supply chain. Ideally it is recommended that you implement continuous inventory management at your largest customers. Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) is an inventory management practice where the supplier takes responsibility for maintaining agreed stock levels of its SKUs in the customer's warehouse, following a mutually beneficial agreement with the customer.