This Running Boom is NOT a Bubble 🏃♂️💨
A bunch of us were at the Running USA Conference last week. Yes, conferences are a lot, but it's one of my favorite weekends of the year catching up with friends and getting a pulse on where the industry at.
However, while the energy was high, there’s a familiar fear in the air: Is this running spike just a phase?
No. It isn't.
We are riding a Third Wave of participation with the structural integrity to last years, if not decades... providing we adapt and keep providing more high quality events.
The macro factors driving growth:
🤝 Be more Human: In the age of AI, with more abundance, more time, less grunt work, the need for meaning and purpose will become stronger than ever. It's no surprise that running and religion in Gen Z are growing.
✨ The AI Multiplier: Small teams are scaling at unprecedented rates thanks to AI, from automating CS to enabling strategic decisions to be made quicker with more accessible data. All this allows teams that once managed 500 runners to manage 10k+.
💰 Economic Resilience: Running is consistently counter-cyclical to the jobs market. During the 2000s economic crash, participation climbed (ref graph). When finances feel unreliable, people invest in what they can trust: health and community.
We Must Adapt to Scale 💥
The boom is real, but success isn't guaranteed or equally apportioned. We are currently facing a scarcity of differentiated supply. People want experience-focused blockbuster events, and the industry must evolve.
We see it in the 1.1 million applications for the London Marathon and the success of events like Diplo’s Run Club. To keep this audience, we MUST provide high-profile, can't-miss moments at the scale they demand.
Our advice to partners is simple: If you have a pinnacle sell-out event, you must find ways to bring that experience to life year-round and this is the time to be ambitious - get more permits, focus on your data, and give people more of what they want.
Atlanta Track Club turned their iconic Peachtree Road Race into a winter version (the Polar Opposite Peachtree) and Motiv Sports UK just announced the Saucony Shoreditch Half Marathon to tap into the insanely high demand for the Hackney Half. There's lots of other exciting things cooking too so watch this space...!
Technological and social winds are blowing in our favor. This is going to be one of the most important industries to build the future we want. Yes AI has big risks, but it can also give us more time to be more human...and what's more human than running around with your mates?