International Crisis Group

Colombians will vote for a new president today at the end of a polarised campaign marred by political violence. Why is the country so divided? Colombians will vote on 31 May at the end of a polarised campaign marked by sharply contrasting views of the outgoing government. Of the pool of eleven candidates, none is likely to secure the 50 per cent of votes needed to win outright, but three have a real prospect of getting to a second round on 21 June. For voters, issues such as the economy, corruption, health and insecurity rank high among the concerns. Whoever takes office in August, the new president will not lack for challenges, from the handling of U.S. pressure to persistent voter demands for a fairer distribution of wealth and better public services. In our latest Q&A, Glaeldys González Calanche and Víctor Manuel Aguilar Pereira examine the stakes in this pivotal election: https://lnkd.in/eHh7yQrk

NEW VISUAL EXPLAINER | The State of the Strait: The Role of Hormuz in the Middle East War So Far The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is a contentious element in negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and an issue of significant interest to countries around the world. After the U.S. and Israel launched their assault on Iran on 28 February – which is widely viewed as violating UN Charter prohibitions of the use of force – Tehran turned one of the world’s most important waterways into a weapon. The U.S. has countered by imposing its own blockade of Iranian ports. Over three months of war, both sides have used the strait to demonstrate resolve while inflicting economic pain. The world urgently needs it to reopen, but whether free passage returns or another arrangement solidifies will have far-reaching consequences. https://lnkd.in/ehQxHrq3

Colombia va a elecciones este domingo y el electorado parece tener visiones diametralmente opuestas sobre el legado del gobierno de Gustavo Petro. Para sus simpatizantes, su administración puso en el centro la política social y obtuvo avances importantes en la reducción de la pobreza y del desempleo, mejoras laborales, inversión en educación y favorecer el acceso a la tierra para campesinos. En contraste, sus detractores ven su mandato de forma catastrófica. Sostienen que su mandato se ha visto plagado de cambios en el gabinete, de escándalos, de corrupción y de reformas imprudentes que han sumido al país en una crisis fiscal. También le acusan de llevar el sistema de salud al borde del colapso, así como de dañar los fuertes lazos que el país había forjado con EE.UU. y de presidir un recrudecimiento de la violencia armada. Con mi colega Glaeldys González Calanche analizamos cómo llega Colombia a estas elecciones y qué está en juego el próximo domingo. Quien sea que gane, se encontrará un país muy diferente al de 2022 y sabiendo que un buen porcentaje de la población tiene una visión muy diferente sobre lo que necesita el país para salir adelante. https://lnkd.in/eY73zYKU

📩 The Month Ahead | Ethiopia’s Tigray Tinderbox The risk of civil war in Ethiopia is rising again and, with it, the threat of a devastating conflict drawing in more of the Horn of Africa. In early May, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front deposed the administration backed by the federal government and installed its own, leaving the northernmost region effectively outside Addis Ababa’s control. The brutal two-year war that ended in November 2022 left hundreds of thousands dead; today, that fragile peace agreement is hanging by a thread. While Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has tightened an economic blockade restricting money and fuel, he may be waiting until after his expected re-election in early June to decide on a more aggressive military approach. Due to intense bad blood in the region, a renewed conflict could swiftly drag in neighbours like Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt - turning an internal flashpoint into a sprawling regional conflict. Elsewhere around the world, critical political shifts and high-stakes diplomatic gatherings are set to dominate the coming weeks: ➡️ Negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran: Washington and Tehran mull over a draft memorandum of understanding amid severe stumbling blocks and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz ➡️ Elections loom in South America: Colombia and Peru head to the polls for pivotal presidential votes that will signal whether the continent's overall shift to the right is accelerating or slowing. ➡️ A Fractured G7 Summit: Leaders of the seven nations will gather in Évian, France amid heavy tensions over U.S. foreign policy, war in the Middle East, a public health emergency in DR Congo, and skyrocketing global food and energy prices caused by the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Our President Comfort Ero examines this month’s overlapping crises, upcoming elections, and global summits in The Month Ahead: https://lnkd.in/esSzvHJd

ONLINE EVENT | Will President Trump Resume the Fighting with Iran? ⏰ Today | 11am Washington DC | 6pm Tel Aviv | 6.30pm Tehran Three months after the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran, and six weeks after an uneasy ceasefire took effect, Washington and Tehran remain poised between a potential return to hostilities and a possible agreement. President Donald Trump’s remarks over the weekend suggest a deal may be possible, though nothing has been confirmed. While the guns have largely stayed silent, confrontation has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s selective closure of the waterway and the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports grind on. The standoff has also kept tensions high across the Gulf, with reported drone and missile incidents affecting Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In this online event, Crisis Group brings together leading experts to examine the question likely to define the next phase of the conflict: can diplomacy succeed, or will President Trump opt to resume the fighting? Panellists: Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz | Senior Researcher, The Institute for National Security Studies Dana Stroul | Director of Research, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Ali Vaez | Project Director, Iran, Crisis Group Moderator: Naysan Rafati | Senior Analyst, Iran, Crisis Group The panel discussion will be held in English. 🗓 Registration: https://lnkd.in/etXgBfK9 The online event will be held in English

🗞️ This Week in Conflict | How Dangerous is the Standoff around Kaliningrad? Both Russian and NATO member state militaries are shoring up defences near the Russian region of Kaliningrad. Both worry about different things in the Baltic Sea, but because they pay little attention to the other side’s concerns and distrust its intentions, they risk exacerbating the dangers. Our experts and latest maps show why an area roughly half the size of Belgium is testing regional security. In the Middle East, the impasse in U.S.-Iran negotiations persists. Negotiations reportedly will proceed along a security track involving military delegations that will convene at the Pentagon on 29 May as well as a political track expected to resume in June. But the risk of a return to full-scale hostilities remains ever present with Israel continuing to strike southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, as Hizbollah launches its own retaliatory drone attacks. Elsewhere, a movement that has ruled Venezuela and defied U.S. supremacy in Latin America for the past quarter-century appears to be on its knees. Chavismo has always been something of an ideological chameleon. Born in military barracks as a nationalist, populist movement, it was supple enough to allow constituencies from both right and left to coalesce around its founder, the late President Hugo Chávez. But after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, few think that chavismo will be in charge in Venezuela forever.

NEW COMMENTARY | Venezuela’s Bonfire of Dogma: How Chavistas are Adapting to U.S. Domination https://lnkd.in/eT32dsXC

NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Eastern Chad is Being Pulled into Sudan’s War Enrica Picco assesses how Sudan’s civil war is deepening communal tensions and straining Chad’s ruling elite https://lnkd.in/eygU2est

The standoff between Russia and NATO allies makes the geographic puzzle of Russia’s Kaliningrad region and the Suwałki Gap a challenge for regional security. NATO members see Russia’s military assets in Kaliningrad as a real and persistent threat. Many NATO officials believe the risk of a Russian attack on the Suwałki Gap and the Baltic states could grow once the war in Ukraine ends and Russia rebuilds its military. Russia regards Kaliningrad as both a vulnerability and a strategic military asset. Moscow interprets NATO activity in the region as preparation for a move to capture Kaliningrad and has become increasingly concerned about a possible NATO land and sea blockade of the semi-exclave. Russia and NATO states worry about different threats in the Baltic Sea, but mutual distrust and limited attention to the other side’s concerns risk exacerbating the dangers. In our Q&A, we assess what lies behind each side’s calculations and what might help mitigate the risks. https://lnkd.in/eV4z-5sh Maps: Crisis Group; Natural Earth / CRISIS GROUP