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What’s the point of using Bayes’ theorem for this if it comes down to a difference in prior probabilities which are in turn undefined anyways?Baby_philosopher– Baby_philosopher2024-02-02 17:25:52 +00:00Commented Feb 2, 2024 at 17:25
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@Baby_philosopher it's still useful to formalize probabilistic logic, so at least people can clearly communicate about their priors and discuss their reasoning for assigning various probabilities. Anybody who assigns non-0 and non-1 probabilities to the relevant variables can at least compare notes with other people.TKoL– TKoL2024-02-02 17:31:28 +00:00Commented Feb 2, 2024 at 17:31
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@TKoL What is your prior probability in God? It seems inscrutable to me since there’s no obvious base data to work with. It seems more worthwhile to just compare theories and marshal reasons for and against, which is what you’re doing when trying to calculate a prior anywaysBaby_philosopher– Baby_philosopher2024-02-02 17:37:59 +00:00Commented Feb 2, 2024 at 17:37
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@Baby_philosopher I'm not very smart so I wouldn't be great at quantifying it. It would probably have something to do with comparing the kolmogrov complexity of physics with the same complexity of a god capable of creating the laws of physics.TKoL– TKoL2024-02-02 18:32:49 +00:00Commented Feb 2, 2024 at 18:32
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@Baby_philosopher: If you truly have no prior beliefs whatsoever, then presumably you'd go with the principle of insufficient reason and call it a 50/50 either way.Nat– Nat2024-02-02 21:26:25 +00:00Commented Feb 2, 2024 at 21:26
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