Nicolas Mankiewitz

Australia’s $175B FMCG sector had a strange year in 2025... growth everywhere, but not evenly. Shoppers chased promotions more than ever, yet spent less overall. Edibles jumped nearly 7% while the rest of grocery lagged, and private label quietly kept winning. What stands out the most is how “value” shifted: people still want a deal, but quality and function are doing more of the heavy lifting. You see it in the 19% surge in non-alcoholic drinks, the rise of protein and hydration, and even in how GLP-1 users (now in 12% of households) are reshaping demand toward satiety and nutrient density. Only exception we see when shoppers are willing to trade up is when the functional or emotional benefits are clear to them. #FMCG #trendvelocity #valuesupremacy #privatelabel

27

1 Comment

FMCG giant Mars Wrigley has invested $6.5 million into a new production line, aiming to increase capacity at its gum and mints business in Asquith, NSW by more than 60 per cent. #fmcg #insidefmcg #business #brand #giant #capacity #invest

47

Global pressures and changing tariffs aren’t just challenges…they are opportunities for food & beverage producers. Over the past 12 months, South Australian food & beverage exports have soared, showing that international markets are hungry for what the region produces. According to Food South Australia, the numbers speak for themselves: 🔹 Meat hit a record $1.64 billion, up $573m 🔹 Fruits & vegetables up 25% to $223.5m  🔹 Seafood up 13% to $205m 🔹 Nuts up 63% to $475.8m Part of this growth is due to new trade tariffs, proving that market shifts can create unexpected openings for South Australian food & beverage producers. Tori Dixon-Whittle, CEO of Food South Australia, joined Trade and Investment Minister The Hon. Joe Szakacs MP on Channel 7 News to share how SA produce – from premium beef and lamb to fresh citrus, seafood, and nuts – is winning on the world stage. Check out the news here to see why South Australia is making its mark globally! #SouthAustralia #FoodAndBeverage #AgriBusiness #SAFood #Innovation #Trade

14

The rise in snacking culture is well documented, but what are consumers snacking on? It turns out to be more nuanced than first thought. ADM ANZ category marketing manager, Melissa Przydacz, discusses the factors driving the evolution of snack bars and their ingredients. https://lnkd.in/gGMfBVVv

16

3 Comments

A lot going on & super busy here at ZRG Executive Search but It's time for my extended FMCG snippet on 𝑾𝒆𝒆𝒌𝒍𝒚 𝑺𝒖𝒑𝒑𝒍𝒚 𝑪𝒉𝒂𝒊𝒏 (SC) 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 news - read on & comment below if I missed anything! 🧀 Lactalis Group will buy Fonterra’s consumer brands for up to NZ$4.2B, closing in 2026 🏭 Marks and Spencer is investing £340M in a high-tech Daventry distribution centre, opening 2029 💄 The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Inc. is overhauling leadership, channels, and marketing, with AI boosting ROI 31% 🚚 Levi Strauss & Co. hired Chris Callieri as CSCO to lead global operations 🤖 Coty rolls out AI in SC & procurement, aiming for $200M savings by 2026 🍻 AB InBev is investing $300M in U.S. manufacturing this yea-boosting plants, production & megabrands 🍦 Monster Energy owners bought Thrifty Ice Cream for $19.2M, aiming to refresh flavours, packaging & distribution 🤖 Funko has appointed Josh Simon ex-Netflix & Nike as its new CEO 🍨 Unilever’s The Magnum Ice Cream Company to NPD Hydro:ICE, 77-cal glow-in-the-dark, vitamin-boosted ice pop for health-minded adults 🍫 Nestlé developed a new cocoa process using 30% more of the fruit to cut waste & boost farmer resilience ⚖️ Kraft Heinz is reportedly preparing to split-showing how mergers focused on cost-cutting over innovation can backfire. 🛒 Cyberattack fears hitting UK e-shopping-33.5% of 16–34-year-olds may cut back amid rising security concerns 🎨 Kellogg Company became the 1st major food firm to sign a binding deal to eliminate artificial dyes from cereals by 2027 🚀 GE Appliances, a Haier company @Ge app will invest $3B to reshore production, modernise 11 U.S. plants, and add 1,000+ jobs Stay tuned for more news next week! #FMCG #SupplyChain #ExecutiveSearch #ConsumerGoods #FoodAndBeverage #Retail #Manufacturing #Procurement #Logistics #Operations #AI #DigitalTransformation #Innovation #Leadership #Sustainability #CPG #GlobalMarkets #ZRG #WeeklySupplyChain

22

Australian brands have been given a reality check with some of the latest data released by Shop! ANZ and the global insights platform Vypr. Grocery is particularly brutal for emerging brands. 48% of shoppers now say price drives every choice. 90% buy something just because it’s on promotion. 40%+ are switching to supermarket brands purely for value. That’s why 27 of this year’s 40 Product of the Year winners came from the two retail giants’ private labels. Private label isn’t the cheap option anymore. It’s the trusted option. If you’re an independent brand here, shelf space isn’t the goal. Control is. Control of your message. Your pricing. Your data. If you’re thinking about launching a new brand, D2C isn’t optional – it’s critical. It’s the only channel that lets you test, build loyalty, and prove traction before you fight for shelf space. That’s what we build at Infinity Blue. We help brands own their growth through marketplaces and D2C, where success comes from content, conversion, and community – not gatekeepers. #FMCG #Ecommerce #PrivateLabel #MarketplaceGrowth #RetailStrategy

14

🛒 Woolworths Q1'26 results. First take. 📰 Woolworths released their Q1'26 results. Full deck comparing Woolies results with that of Coles will be prepared and released tomorrow (after Coles updates the market), but here's a quick breakdown of Woolworths Q1'26 performance: 📈 Total group sales are up +2.7% vs YA, mostly driven by yet another strong performance of B2B Food and Petstock, although the devil is always in the details. If we look deeper underneath the strong performance of the aforementioned business units, strong reported growth is driven either by misaligned time periods vs YA (B2B Food pillar / PFD - 14 weeks in Q1'26 vs 13 weeks in Q1'25), or inclusions of revenue from other business activities that were not part of the reporting in Q1'25 (Petstock results in Q1'26 include wholesale revenue from distributors Big Dog and TimePet). 🥑 Australian Food sales are up +2.1% vs YA. Comparable (LFL) sales results increased by only +1.6% vs YA though. Woolworths Supermarkets store-originated growth is flat vs YA (+0.1% vs YA). Overall growth of the Australian Food pillar is driven solely by the pick-up eCommerce sales (+19.4%) and delivery eCommerce sales (+8.9% vs YA). 🥑 New Zealand Food sales are up by +2.5% vs YA in AUD, and +3.2% vs YA in NZD. Similar to the Australian Food pillar, Woolworths New Zealand Supermarkets store-originated growth is flat-ish vs ya (+0.4% vs YA), and the growth is solely driven by the eCommerce (+15.8% vs YA). 🚛 Australian B2B sales are up by +6.2% vs YA. Once again, the acquisition of PFD keeps proving to be one of the best strategic decisions that Woolworths made over the last years. That being said, this quarter, PFD sales growth (+6.2% vs YA) benefited from moving to a 14-week quarter from a 13-week quarter previously. Excluding this benefit, Australian B2B sales increased by a much lower +2.2% vs YA. 🏠 Finally, W Living sales are up by +3.3% vs YA. BIG W total sales increased by 1.0% in Q1 to $1,138 million with comparable sales up 0.6% on the prior year. Petstock sales increased by 15.8% in Q1 to $238 million largely driven by network expansion of a net six stores and the inclusion of wholesale revenue from distributors Big Dog and TimePet. More insights and the full deck will be realeased on the FMCG Playbook company page tomorrow. Stay informed 🤝 #fmcg #retail

27

10 Comments

In the 4 weeks ending 17th May 2025, NIQ Total Till growth slowed to +3%, a significant drop from the +9.6% seen during Easter. Unit sales across all of FMCG at the Grocery Multiples fell by -1.4%. Discounters remain the fastest-growing channel but Online sales declined by 1.7% as the prolonged sunny and warm weather encouraged shoppers to visit physical stores, with store visits up 7% compared to last year. Loyalty card savings are also driving shoppers to explore different retailers. An NIQ Homescan survey revealed that 41% of households are influenced by loyalty card promotions when choosing where to shop. This trend certainly benefited Tesco (sales +6.4%) and Sainsbury's (+5%), both of which continue to gain market share at the expense of Asda (sales -3.1%) and Morrisons (+1.7%) over the last 12 weeks. However, there has been a reset in spending habits despite the good weather, indicating a shift in shopper behaviour. Shoppers are holding back on spending in certain categories such as packaged groceries, where sales fell by -1.5% and unit sales by -5.4%, as well as household items and some frozen foods. In contrast, the fastest-growing super categories were meat, fish, and poultry, with value sales up +8.4% and unit growth +1.5%. This suggests that shoppers are prioritising eating at home, reflecting underlying weaknesses in some restaurant channels as reported by CGA this month. The warmer weather also boosted sales in soft drinks (+6.7%), ice cream (+13%), and suncare products (+20%). While consumer confidence improved slightly in May, it remains negative at -20 according to GFK and shoppers are still uncertain about their personal finances. With food price inflation starting to rise (+2.8% in May, NIQ BRC), we expect Total Till value growth to remain around 3% in June, with unit growth across all FMCG likely staying flat. Let’s hope the sun keeps shining.

28

2 Comments

Listening to the Radio today. Australian shoppers are voting with their baskets—and this year they’ve handed a big win to supermarket private label. Consumer-voted results just landed and home brands dominated the Product of the Year (POY) Awards again—68% of all winners were private label, with Coles and Woolworths accounting for 27 of the 40 winning products. That’s a meaningful shift in where Australians see value, quality and innovation on shelf. For me, this confirms three things I’ve seen on the ground for years: Value + credibility beat legacy when budgets are tight. (CHOICE’s latest pricing still has ALDI as the price floor, with Coles and Woolworths close behind.) ABC Innovation is now a home-brand game—especially in wellness (high-protein, low/no sugar, gut health), premium tiers, and ready-meal convenience. The Range discipline matters. Coles’ SKU rationalisation (≈2,500 items) is classic “make space for winners,” and private label is where a lot of those winners are being incubated. What it means for Australian manufacturers (especially SMEs): Be a specialist, not a generalist. Bring one claim or format the retailer doesn’t already own. Design for own-brand from day one (costed specs, speed to brief, packaging sustainability). Wellness with proof beats wellness as a slogan (protein quality, sugar reduction, gut-health substantiation). Premiumisation is alive—but it must earn its keep (ingredient story, sensory delta, packaging that travels). Operational hygiene (FSSC/ISO/Halal, GS1, export-ready documentation) turns a first meeting into a fast listing. Am I surprised? Not really. In a cost-of-living cycle, shoppers reward products that solve—and right now, a lot of those solutions are wearing supermarket brands on the front. Congratulations to the teams delivering them. (Sources: POY 2026 coverage and commentary; CHOICE 2025 price basket; category trend notes. Food Mag, retailworldmagazine.com.au, Guardian, Canberra Times)

12

5 Comments

The uncomfortable truth is this: a lot of Australia’s best spirits brands will never make it to the international stage. Not because the liquid isn’t good enough, but because the system around them makes it almost impossible to do so. Australian producers are making genuinely world-class whiskey, gin, and rum - anyone who spends time in distilleries across Australia knows that. But before a brand even thinks about export, they’re already carrying huge costs just to exist (even more than their international peers) - excise, compliance, reporting, distribution friction, operating costs and wages… the list adds up fast. For many producers, the maths simply doesn’t work. So they stay small or local. Or eventually, and slowly but surely, burn out. Australian wine on the otherhand had coordinated support, an export strategy, and long-term thinking (although many craft producers also got left behind here). Spirits? Largely left to fend for themselves, tackling one market at a time with limited resources and a lot of personal risk. And that’s the shame of it. Not just missed commercial upside, but missed brand building. Missed regional jobs. Missed opportunities to show the world what modern Australian distilling actually looks like. This isn’t about handouts but about creating an environment where great brands have a fighting chance to scale, rational excise settings, sensible regulation, and proper export market support that recognises spirits as a serious contributor to Australian food and beverage identity and international brand as a whole. https://lnkd.in/gS5VEvCP

18

6 Comments

The return of volume decline If volume showed timid signs of recovery quarter over quarter last year, Q1 showed a broad-based volume decline across most verticals (except #Beauty Personal Care) and FMCG companies (55% of the world largest listed #FMCG companies) suggesting that volume recovery will not be a fast & straight journey As we predicted last year: 'it will get worse before it will get better'. Why? - Because of the end of three super-cycles (high pricing, China last decade tailwind, post-COVID growth acceleration on few specific categories like Beauty, VMS, Pet Care & Alcoholic Drinks) & now growing challenges with the US consumers that could end up being more structural than most believe Time for all #CPG companies to try much harder on organic growth and to go beyond one-offs adjustments (portfolio, innovation intensity, A&P increase) All those one-offs will lead for the industry to a near zero-sum game top-line growth & profit erosion More on how to outperform in those unprecedented times in our last publication: FMCG CEOs: Q1 2025 Results In Review - From Shrinking-To-Glory To Shrinking-To-Misery? https://lnkd.in/eMsemanN Exciting & decisive times 𝐓𝐨 𝐣𝐨𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 ~33,000 𝐅𝐌𝐂𝐆 𝐞𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 our 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫, 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧-𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐤: https://lnkd.in/ea4gy65y 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘂𝘀: FF&A solves the most complex strategic problems of the world largest FMCG companies across Corporate Strategy, Organic Growth, Digital RTM (Ecommerce, DTC and EB2B) and M&A. 14 out of the world 20 largest FMCG companies are repeat Clients

26

1 Comment