Stears

Venture capital overtook private equity in LP commitment volume in Q1 2026, its first time atop the volume ranking since Q3 2025. Distributed LP activity across Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Soros Economic Development Fund, Livelihood Impact Fund, and the AFDB drove the shift. Yet by disclosed value, VC's 16% share sits well behind PE, which continues to attract the largest individual ticket sizes. The data reflects the structural reality of African VC: funds are smaller, LP allocations are proportionally lower, and PE commands the anchor commitments. Access the fund-level data, market analysis and insights behind the report https://lnkd.in/eVrXNSqX

Inflation trajectory, FX movement, monetary policy direction. These are the inputs that determine whether a deal holds, and the inputs most teams are still pulling from multiple sources before closing on an investment thesis. Stears now changes that. Up to seven years of forward projections across the indicators that matter most to deal structuring, including inflation, exchange rates, GDP growth and government finances, aggregated and verified, in the same platform as the transaction database and company data you are already working from. The macro foundation of your next Africa deal no longer has to be assembled elsewhere. Request a trial to build your next Africa deal on forward-looking macro intelligence https://lnkd.in/e9xB2bWG

Together, DEG, Proparco, British International Investment, IFC - International Finance Corporation, and European Investment Bank (EIB) accounted for a disproportionate share of both volume and disclosed value in Q1 2026,  reinforcing that the LP base for African private capital remains structurally anchored by institutional capital from development mandates. Request a trial to go deeper into the fundraising data https://lnkd.in/eAFdY2Wr

Nigeria's CNG market extends beyond the fuel queue. Auto-CNG retail gets the most attention, and for good reason. Petrol subsidy removal has made cheaper transport fuel urgent for buses, taxis, ride-hailing cars, and private vehicles. But the demand story does not stop there. Fleet depots, industrial users, and captive power customers are quietly building a parallel case for CNG, one with steadier, more predictable throughput than open retail stations alone. Think BRT operators and logistics fleets running high daily utilisation. Breweries, cement plants, and food processors switching from diesel and LPFO. Factories and estates replacing diesel generation with lower-cost gas power. For investors, this changes the unit economics conversation. A compression hub or station that combines public refuelling with fleet, industrial, and captive power offtake has a stronger utilisation case than one dependent on walk-in vehicle demand alone. As Nigeria's conversion base expands, operators with diversified end-users will be better placed to protect throughput and scale across the country's transport and industrial corridors. The strongest early CNG models will not be built on one customer type. They will be built on the right mix. Request a trial to access Stears' full analysis of Nigeria's CNG demand pools, business models, and investment thesis https://lnkd.in/eF-y2txC

The European Investment Bank (EIB) backed only three funds during Q1 2026, but committed $94M to RMBV North Africa Fund III, $80M to Apis Partners Growth Fund III, and participated in a third vehicle. Its total disclosed value of $210M accounted for nearly a quarter of all disclosed LP capital in the period and gave it the largest average ticket size among all active LPs. Request a trial to access the intelligence behind the Q1 2026 Africa Private Capital Fundraising Report: https://lnkd.in/eF-y2txC

Stears just dropped the Liquidity Index, and it may have solved one of African VC’s biggest problems: how to make fund managers voluntarily disclose liquidity data. It’s a phenomenon called “voluntary disclosure competition”, and it works like this: - You have one centralized dashboard tracking venture exits across Africa. - The institution publishing it is trusted, and already the go-to reference point for LPs and global investors looking for data on African private markets. - The dashboard also shows who disclosed exits, and how many. - The more funds disclose, the more the dashboard becomes the de facto public reference for liquidity in African private capital. The standard. - At some point, the market starts becoming suspicious of funds that don’t disclose. Either they’re hiding bad information, or they simply don’t want to contribute to the ecosystem. - And realistically, almost every fund has at least some exits. Especially since sensitive information like multiples won’t even be public, there’s very little downside to disclosure. So overall, the pressure gradually shifts toward transparency. And the net social benefits of transparent information are immense. If we stop GUESSING what liquidity in Africa looks like, and start working with REAL DATA instead, maybe people will finally price African risk more accurately. And maybe, that will result in a LOT MORE capital unlocked. So my dear African GPs, hear me well: Give us the dataaaaaaaa. We just want the dataaaaaa. At this point, there are almost no excuses left not to disclose. --- P.S. I am building data bites, your intellectual toolkit to make sense of 21st century African Renaissance 🌍

Accra's Grade A office market has a 22% vacancy rate. Two buildings in Cantonments City are at 98% and 100% occupancy. That gap tells you everything about where the real investment case sits. Grade A in Accra is still a market convention, not a formally audited standard. In a softer, tenant-led market, the label is being tested. Occupiers can compare service quality, negotiate terms, and move toward buildings that actually meet institutional operating standards. The assets holding occupancy are not winning on the address. They win on specification-maintained post-completion, multinational anchor covenants, and professional management that has stayed invested over time. But asset quality is only the starting point. Dollar-referenced rents are only as durable as the tenant behind the lease. A 1,000 sqm office at $25 per sqm costs GHS300,000 per month today. At GHS18/$, a plausible stress case, that same lease reaches GHS450,000. The lease does not change. The tenant's affordability does. And even where the income holds, it only becomes a return where the hold period is realistic, documentation is clean, and the exit buyer is credible. We have mapped the full income case across four dimensions: asset quality, tenant covenant, FX mechanics, and exit structure. Swipe through the deck. You can access the full report and supporting data on Stears. Request a trial: https://lnkd.in/emEHzEP7

Quarter-on-quarter, disclosed value experienced a 16% increase, rising from $750M in Q4 2025 to $870M. Year-on-year, the jump is sharper: $498M to $870M represents a 75% increase in disclosed LP capital into African fund vehicles in a single year. Disclosure rates fell slightly to 42% from 47% the prior quarter, meaning the increase was driven by larger commitments, not broader transparency. Request a trial to track the data behind the report https://lnkd.in/ewbHZTfG

There are plenty of capital stories coming out of Africa this week, but the real signal is where money is still moving despite tougher conditions. Investors are not just chasing growth. They are watching refinancing risk, FX pressure, policy credibility, and projects that can support real production. Angola’s $1.5 billion Eurobond return shows appetite for sovereign risk remains, though at high coupons. Ethiopia’s $4 billion-plus Dangote fertiliser project points to a push for local production in a country still dependent on fertiliser imports. In Gabon, BW Energy’s $300 million Bourdon field investment adds momentum to offshore oil, while BGFI Holding’s planned $143.6 million capital raise could deepen Central Africa’s thin equity market. The currency picture remains uneven. The Ghanaian cedi weakened 1.83% to GHS11.63/$, while the South African rand strengthened 1.19% to ZAR16.47/$. That divergence matters for entry timing, pricing, and portfolio exposure. Request a trial to track the deals, risks, and capital flows shaping Africa’s markets https://lnkd.in/eJn4eqNP

The number of LP commitments into African private capital fund vehicles reached its highest first-quarter level since 2022. Disclosed value was the highest recorded in a first quarter since 2023. Both metrics improved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter simultaneously, signalling broad-based momentum in several reporting periods. Additionally, DEG, Proparco, and British International Investment were the three most active LPs by volume, as DFIs led others in commitments. Access the intelligence, fund-level data, and market analysis behind the report https://lnkd.in/eejW9R8N