Rajat Kumar Surana

India's IT services wake-up call to AI is getting serious attention in the Financial Times Key points from the FT coverage: ➡️ Muted growth: The sector’s biggest market, the US, has been hit by tariffs, economic uncertainty, and client caution, stalling decision-making and investment. ➡️ AI urgency: Major IT services players are scrambling to showcase AI capabilities, but adoption is still at a “very early” stage. Many clients are rethinking how they work before committing big budgets. ➡️ Competitive pressures: Enterprise customers are shifting more work to in-house teams and GCCs, pressuring outsourcing revenue models. ➡️ Market potential: India’s IT market could grow from $9B in 2023 to $22B by 2027 - source nasscom and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) - but only if firms bridge the gap between AI hype and enterprise-wide adoption. Bottom line: The Indian IT sector isn’t short on ambition, it’s short on time. The winners will be those who plan for the AI wave before it disrupts them, not after. #AI #IndianIT #DigitalTransformation #Automation #HFSResearch #ServicesAsSoftware Saurabh Gupta Tony Filippone Ashwin Venkatesan Ashish Chaturvedi HFS Research

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GDP PPP Per Capita in India's Big 9: 1. Mumbai: $39K 2. Pune: $33K 3. Kolkata: $32K 4. Delhi: $29K 5. Bangalore: $27K 6. Ahmedabad: $26K 7. Hyderabad: $25K 8. Surat: $25K 9. Chennai: $24K 9 account for just 10% of population, but 40% of India's GDP Rich mini countries

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Trump just handed India the BIGGEST gift in tech history. And he doesn't even realize it. The $100,000 H1-B visa fee isn't a roadblock for India. It's a rocket booster. Here's what just happened: ➡️ H1-B fees jumped from $1,000 to $100,000 (10,000% increase) ➡️ 71% of all H1-B visas go to Indians ➡️ 758,994 people applied for only 110,791 spots in 2024 Everyone's calling this "the end of the American dream for Indians." I'm calling it the beginning of the Indian century. Why? Because the math is BEAUTIFUL: India's GCC Revolution is Already Here: ✅ Over 1,700 Global Capability Centers already operating in India ✅ 86% of Indian GCCs are actively working on AI/ML projects ✅ India hosts 55% of the world's GCCs The Companies Betting BIG on India: ➡️ Microsoft's largest R&D center outside the US? India. ➡️ Amazon's AI innovation hub? India. ➡️ Goldman Sachs' risk management center? India. ➡️ Google's next billion users strategy? Built in India. What Trump's Policy Actually Does: ✅ Accelerates $100K+ salary roles moving to India (higher-value work) ✅ Forces US companies to build PERMANENT operations here (not temporary visas) ✅ Makes India the default choice for global R&D centers While America prices out talent, India is building: ➡️ 2,400 GCCs expected by 2030 ➡️ 4.5 million high-skilled jobs ➡️ Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune becoming global innovation capitals Reality Check: 46% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants. Apple, Google, Tesla – all have immigrant founders. Now instead of sending our best minds to build American companies, we're keeping them to build Indian unicorns. Bottom Line: America built its tech dominance on global talent. India is about to do the same. The irony? Trump thinks he's protecting American jobs. He's actually accelerating India's rise as the world's tech capital. The future isn't about going to Silicon Valley. It's about building the next Silicon Valley right here.

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⚡ Tesla got 600 orders since July. Mahindra sold 999 EVs in just 135 seconds. That’s not just speed — that’s the power of Made in India. 🇮🇳 For years, global giants like Tesla have defined the EV future. Their India entry created buzz. But the real disruption? It’s coming from homegrown players. Not “Will India adopt EVs?” But “How fast can we build the ecosystem to meet demand?” 👉 Do you believe India can become the global EV hub in the next decade? ⚡🇮🇳

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H-1B visa fee hike = India’s Gain? The new $100,000 H-1B fee feels like a setback for Indians in the US. But maybe it’s also the start of something new.. 💲Brain gain for India: Many who once left may now return, bringing global exposure back home. 💲Rise of remote work: US companies may prefer hiring Indian talent remotely instead of paying steep visa costs. 💲Entrepreneurship boost: Returning professionals could channel their experience into startups in India. 💲Talent rebalancing: Indian professionals will spread across UAE, Asia, Europe, Canada, and beyond, instead of all chasing the US dream. 💲Corporate rethink: Multinationals may build more hubs in India, Singapore, or Poland—creating jobs closer to home. This move, honestly, is a reminder that Indian talent has never been about geography. Wherever we go, we adapt, contribute, and shine. #H1B #Indianexpats #career #jobs

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Most startup founders in India will retire broke. But that “boring” Principal Engineer at Big Tech? Quietly compounding ₹20 crore net worth. We love the “build a startup → raise funding → IPO → retire young” story. But here’s the harsh truth: Most startups fail. Most founders burn out. Most equity becomes… wallpaper. Meanwhile, there’s a quieter path to long-term wealth. 📌 Big Tech Engineering Let’s talk real numbers. A Principal Engineer at companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon in India earns: 👉 ₹1.5 – ₹3 Cr/year (That’s a mix of base salary, performance bonus, RSUs, and annual refreshers) Now let’s run the math over a 15-year career: Even with conservative investing, a Principal Engineer can: 💰 Earn ₹25–30 Cr in total comp 💰 Save and invest ₹10–12 Cr 💰 Reach a net worth of ₹20 Cr+ by their 40s All of this while: • Logging off at 6 PM • No sleepless nights about runway • No emotional rollercoaster of founder life • No begging VCs for term sheets Just calm, consistent wealth building. Solid savings. Compounding investments. And a good night’s sleep. And while everyone glorifies “taking risks” — the real risk might be ignoring this path. ⸻ 🤯 Ask yourself: • Is it really “settling” if you’re worth ₹20 Cr by 45? • Is quitting your ₹2 Cr job to chase an idea with 5% odds actually brave — or just poorly planned? Let’s be clear — I’m not anti-entrepreneurship. I admire founders. But the survivorship bias is real. For every unicorn, there are a thousand forgotten decks in someone’s Google Drive. So maybe… • The smart play is staying the course • Letting equity refreshers and SIP returns do the heavy lifting • Using your income to buy freedom, not stress That “boring engineer” you mocked for not taking risks? They’re out there: • Buying real estate • Sending their kids abroad — debt-free • Taking a sabbatical at 40 • Supporting their family without worry • Choosing work because they want to, not because they have to. Not everyone needs to be the next Nikhil Kamath. Sometimes, the richest people are the quietest. Sometimes the best move isn’t chasing glory — it’s compounding peace.

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I try to think of markets from outside in. On Sundays. This is what I see .. AI, China, Jungle Raj, baby bust… 1. The new arms race is AI — which is all about data, GPUs and power. US leads in GPUs, China in electricity. AI gains will flow first to consumers, then US tech, then Chinese mfg. 70–80% of global AI investment is happening in just two places: US and China. This isn’t the old tech cycle — it’s capital intensive, infra-heavy, and compute-driven. 2. Ideology is dead, hyper- realism is back for nations conduct. In a bipolar world, smaller states must pay tribute to secure their borders. The old logic of ‘pick an ideology, get support’ is over. US also doesn’t see India as a China bulwark anymore — a clear break from past 2 decades thinking. 3. That means India will drift toward the RIC bloc. Good for Indian consumers and security. Not sure for our services exports. Trump hasn’t targeted Indian IT yet — but in jungle raj, everything becomes leverage. 4. Small nations thrived under globalisation — free security, open markets. That game is over. India, with its tech stack and digital infra, could be a winner in the AI wave. But the power gap viz US and China will grow, not shrink. 5. World is experiencing baby bust. Fewer kids, older populations. Primary consumption — food, housing, clothes — will decelerate. Robots will arrive to help, but who will buy diapers and Parle G? 6. Inequality will rise — both across countries and within them. The last 50/60 year convergence between rich and poor nations is slowing. Inside countries, a few firms and individuals will capture disproportionate gains. Power law world. Since inequality paves way for lower rates (read Ali’ paper) — I think zero rate regime is around the corner again! (Very provocative, huh?) 7. With the US stepping back as global cop, forever-wars will rise. Cyberattacks, drones, infrastructure hits. Fewer body bags, more economic losses. Kinetic wars will give way to economic sabotage (then why Ukraine?— u may ask then) 8. India moving from high CAD (2-3%) and moderate inflation (5-6%) to low CAD (0-1%) and low inflation (2-4%). That means sharply lower rates. China+1 will help Indian firms— not because DC wants it, but because global corporates do. 9. AI will trigger a cognition boom. Firms that can replace human labor will re-rate higher (so Indian IT will benefit, even though India SWEs will be worse off, banks too will do well, so will be many other service firms). Big firms who can invest in AI will do better than smaller ones. Skew among biggies will also rise (basis AI adoption) Raw materials powering data centers — will surge in value. White color jobs safe from low level pattern recognition and assembly line like ones— will grow in heft. Everything else… 10. This isn’t prediction, just perspective. Writing forces clarity. Sharing invites pushback. That’s the game. Win-win? Plus, I didn’t have any other point to make the 10th one:)

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Now, a ₹5 local train ticket could WIN you ₹10,000 a day. And no, it’s not a SCAM. It might be one of the sharpest behavioral experiments Indian Railways has ever run to solve the problem of ticket-less traveling in Mumbai’s local trains.  Here’s why it matters: Every single day, over 7.5 million people travel via Mumbai’s local trains. But around 4,000 to 5,000 of them ride without a ticket. That’s not just fare evasion. It’s a silent leak. Assuming a ticket is for ₹5 4500 people travelling without a ticket → revenue loss od ~₹6.75 lakh/month. And the traditional fixes have been tried and tested. Fines. Enforcement drives. Announcements on repeat. But enforcement alone rarely shifts behavior at scale. 📌That’s when the approach shifted. The Indian Government introduced this new campaign ‘Lucky Yatra’ in March 2025. This is in collaboration with FCB Communications Pvt. Ltd. that flips the enforcement script entirely. Here’s how it works: → Buy any Mumbai local train ticket  → Automatically registers you for ₹10,000 daily reward → Plus, eligibility for ₹50,000 weekly jackpot → No extra cost. No forms. Just your commute. → Only for local/daily commuters.  → Verify your winnings on Lucky Yatra’s website. Sounds too simple to work? That’s exactly why it does. We often forget that India spends approximately $33.2 billion annually on lottery tickets. Not because we misunderstand the odds, but because we understand hope. And HOPE is the real genius behind this campaign. It’s classic hope marketing. It takes your most ordinary ₹5–35 train ride and plants the possibility of ₹10,000. Because it triggers a ”future reward bias”, the emotional high of imagining success which outweighs the logical risk of failure. In the case of Lucky Yatra, this is applied beautifully. And maybe that’s the takeaway here: Hope isn't soft. Hope is a strategy. What do you think? #mumbailocal #lotterytickets #india

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The pain of seeing all these memes is immense. India has everything needed to overcome this challenge. In fact, below, I’m tagging 20 Indian AI startups that are genuinely striving to bring about change. If you’re in India and don’t want to remain a labor force for foreign MNCs—worshipping the growing count of Indian-origin CEOs—but instead aspire to solve Indian problems using AI with a skilled team, congratulations! India honestly has high hopes from you. Hope you make it big. Let’s talk about some issues: 1️⃣ Early Funding Struggles Even with top credentials, who will fund you at the start? Covering basic costs before showing real results requires trust. While VCs and angels aren’t entirely to blame, the trust deficit—perhaps from past valuation-driven, loss-making startups—makes early AI funding tougher. 2️⃣ Government Support & Grants With rapid developments in AI, are Indian startups actually receiving government grants? If so, how fast is the process? 3️⃣ The 'Short-Term Exit' Mindset Previous-gen startups in delivery, quick commerce, video content, astrology, and short-reels were often funded for their 2-3 year exit strategy over long-term innovation. The focus on quick "Munafa from the start," "VC template," and rapid exits still dominates some Indian investors' thinking, making it harder for deep-tech and AI startups—requiring longer cycles—to secure serious backing. 4️⃣ Investor Understanding A solid understanding of AI is crucial. Are Indian investors with significant capital willing to back cutting-edge AI startups? It’s refreshing to see investors like Anupam Mittal discussing SLMs, but how many other Indian investors are even aware of such domains? 5️⃣ Mentorship & Guidance Can top engineering faculty mentor young AI teams without immediate personal gain? Some do, but accessibility is a challenge. And beyond professors—what about India’s big tech leaders? Will they offer guidance, or will the debate stay stuck on 70- vs. 120-hour workweeks? 6️⃣ A Zero-Sum Mentality Must Go The "crab mentality" has to end. Innovation thrives when people support one another instead of pulling each other down. It’s not about winning at someone else’s cost—it’s about creating a win-win ecosystem. Gen Z brings some hope in this regard. Many discuss how Indian tech YouTubers glorify only MAANG jobs, but I see passionate Indian AI startups have still emerged, taking inspiration from global pioneers. They don’t need spoon-feeding—but who will support them in the critical early stages? Sometimes, even acknowledgment is a form of support. 🔹 Here’s a list of 20 Indian AI startups at an early stage—driven, skilled, and ambitious. Let’s hope they make it big! 🚀 Krutrim, Sarvam, Convin, Jivi AI, TWO.AI, Clodura.AI, CoRover, Katonic AI, BharatGPT, Hanooman, smallest.ai, HacktivSpace, KissanAI, KOGO, VoiceOwl, Soket AI Labs, dotAgent, Tensoic, CognitiveLab, Stition.AI 

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Your "Made in India" startup is designed in California. And funded by people who have never lived here. Yet founders wonder why they can't build monopolies in Indian markets. But here's what most founders miss: Copying Western models isn't building monopolies. It's building mediocrity. Peter Thiel was right about one thing: Real wealth comes from owning markets, not fighting in them. Look at India's real success stories: Zerodha didn't disrupt traditional brokers. They created zero-brokerage trading for retail investors. Razorpay didn't fight HDFC or ICICI. They built a payment infrastructure that no bank offered. Freshworks didn't compete with Salesforce head-to-head. They owned the SMB customer service space first. The pattern they all followed? Own a tiny market completely before dreaming of billion-dollar TAMs. But most Indian founders think small = thinking small. Wrong. Zomato started with restaurant menus in Delhi NCR. Not food delivery across 500 cities. Flipkart began with books, not everything retail. The mistake I see repeatedly in pitch sessions: "We are targeting the $60 billion Indian e-commerce market." No. You are not. You are targeting 1000 customers who desperately need your specific solution. Own those 1000 customers completely. Make it impossible for them to switch. Then expand to adjacent markets methodically. At Bolstart, our highest-returning startups followed this playbook. They didn't chase massive TAMs. They built monopolies in tiny markets first. Building a monopoly isn't about crushing competition. It's about creating value where none existed before. The Indian startup ecosystem needs more monopoly builders, fewer market disruptors. What's the smallest market your startup could completely dominate? Drop your thoughts below. #StartupIndia #AngelInvesting #Monopoly #PeterThiel #Bolstart

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{India VC Funding} $4.9b via 410 Startup Deals in H1 $1.3b in eCommerce, $1b in Fintech followed by Enterprise software, DeepTech and Healthtech. No AI ... And if you look at trends in the US it probably is 80% deployed in AI across segments. This raises the question: What are we missing - what opportunities or developments are we potentially overlooking in the realm of AI within the Indian startup ecosystem? The Economic Times Jessica Rajan Ajay Rag

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Why Nvidia Is Not Bigger Than Indian Economy Nvidia $ 5 trillion market-cap---it is world's most valuable company -- is higher than India's GDP. But countries are not listed on stock market and their market cap is unknown. An accurate way to compare companies with countries is through revenue and GDP--- both annual values of output. By this yardstick, Nvidia is just 3% of India's GDP Nvidia Market- Cap : $ 5.020 billion India's GDP: $ 4.187 billion Nvidia market cap: 120% of India's GDP Nvidia's Revenue : $ 130.5 billion Nvidia Revenue is just 3% of India's GDP. In short comparing Market cap of a company or companies together with a country's GDP is not at all logical and does not really make any sense. While market cap is the market value of a company on a particular day ( say end of a quarter or FY) the GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced within a country's borders during a specific time period, like a quarter or a year. Thus market value is cumulative whereas GDP is for a year and hence when GDP of a country is compared to a company, the basis should be Revenue of the company and not market cap. [ Image source: ToI Mumbai edition of 31st October 2025]

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Why the Next Indian Unicorn Will Be Built in a Fab, Not a Cloud Office India’s next startup wave will not emerge from SaaS dashboards but from fabs, robotics labs, and deep manufacturing hubs. Over $28.3B of FDI flowed into manufacturing this year, marking a 26% year-on-year surge. Venture capital share for IP-led hardware has tripled since 2020. Patent filings have more than doubled in five years, and EBITDA margins in industrial deeptech now outpace SaaS. This is not hype. It is a structural shift. Capital is flowing toward founders who build physical IP, not just code. The new alpha lies in capacity, localization, and defensibility rooted in production, not in presentation. The next wave of unicorns will be measured in patents, not pitches. India’s manufacturing economy is projected to hit $1.3T by FY2030 the smartest founders are already compounding at that intersection of engineering and economics. Full article here: https://lnkd.in/ggH5ZYC6 #Manufacturing #Startups #VentureCapital #India #DeepTech #Hardware #Innovation #PrivateEquity #IndustrialTech #Economics #Investing #Business #SupplyChain #Founders #Strategy #TechPolicy #GlobalMarkets

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