South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM)

We are happy to announce that Mr Farhan Khan has joined our team as a Senior Research Associate. With his expertise and passion for research, we are confident that he will contribute to advancing our vision of evidence-informed policy advocacy in Bangladesh and beyond. Please join us in welcoming him to the SANEM family! #sanem

Thinking Aloud | April 2026 Issue: Preparing for the Challenges Ahead Read the issue here: https://lnkd.in/gR9PRurn The April issue looks at three challenges Bangladesh can no longer defer - a budget caught between immediate pressures and long-term transition, an education reform with the right ideas but uncertain delivery, and a seismic risk Bangladesh has consistently underestimated. Here's what's inside: “Budget 2026–27: Steering Bangladesh Through Uncertainty and Transition” by Selim Raihan The article examines the challenges facing Bangladesh's 2026-27 budget with slowing growth, persistent inflation, and a Middle East crisis already weighing on energy costs, remittances, and trade. The budget must serve as a strategic instrument rather than a routine fiscal exercise, balancing short-term stabilisation with LDC graduation pressures. The article stresses that social protection expansion, banking reform, investment revival, and tax base broadening are all necessary, but their effectiveness depends on coherence across fiscal, monetary, and structural policies. "Bangladesh's Education Reform: Between Promise and Delivery" by Selim Raihan and Shafa Tasneem The article centers around the argument that while Bangladesh's education system has made remarkable progress in access, learning outcomes tell a harder story. SANEM-ActionAid's Youth Survey 2025 found that more than half of educated youth felt unprepared for the job market. The article examines the newly elected government's 12-point education reform agenda spanning curriculum modernisation, digital access, mandatory internships, and pedagogical reforms. While the proposals are directionally right, fiscal underutilisation, curriculum disruption, and coordination gaps could derail delivery. "Are We Prepared to Pay? Economic Risks of Earthquakes in Bangladesh" by Sudeepto Roy The article warns that Bangladesh's earthquake risk is no longer distant. 40 tremors struck within or along its borders in 2025-26, with a major quake of magnitude 8.2 to 9 possible. Global modelling suggests losses exceeding $60 billion and over 100,000 deaths. Myanmar, Nepal, and Turkey all confirm that unenforced building codes offer no real protection. Bangladesh has the codes but not the institutional will to enforce them. Paying now for structural assessments and retrofitting is far cheaper than the alternative. The pressures facing Bangladesh are no longer on the horizon, they are already here. This issue of Thinking Aloud maps what is at stake: a budget that must stabilise and transform at once, an education system whose reform promises must survive the implementation test, and a country that cannot afford to wait for the next earthquake to act. Dive into the insights!

When did "preventable accident" become acceptable? It is not only reckless driving but broken governance, flawed licensing, and zero accountability. SANEM's Research Director, Mahtab Uddin, sheds light on the real crisis in his op-ed in The Daily Star. Read the full article: link in comments. #SANEM #SANEMInsights

আমরা মুক্তিযুদ্ধের চেতনা ও বীর শহীদদের আত্মত্যাগের গৌরবময় ইতিহাসকে গভীর শ্রদ্ধার সাথে স্মরণ করছি। স্বাধীনতার মূল্যবোধ আমাদের সম্মিলিত অগ্রযাত্রার অনুপ্রেরণা ও পথপ্রদর্শক হয়ে উঠুক। সবাইকে মহান স্বাধীনতা দিবসের আন্তরিক শুভেচ্ছা। 🇧🇩 #SANEM #55thIndependenceDay

We are happy to share our latest policy paper, "Geopolitical Conflict and Economic Spillovers: Simulating the Impact of a Middle East War on Bangladesh." Link: https://lnkd.in/g2J8n898 Citation: Raihan, S. (2026). Geopolitical Conflict and Economic Spillovers: Simulating the Impact of a Middle East War on Bangladesh. SANEM & Australian High Commission Policy Paper Series. SANEM Publications, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East often generate economic consequences far beyond the conflict zone. For Bangladesh, the potential fallout of a prolonged regional war could be significant. The country relies heavily on imported energy, maintains strong trade connections with global markets, and receives substantial remittances from migrant workers in Gulf economies. Any disruption to energy supply routes, maritime trade corridors, or economic activity in host countries could quickly transmit shocks to Bangladesh’s economy. This policy paper examines these risks using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model. Simulation scenarios capture key transmission channels, including sharp increases in global oil and liquefied natural gas prices, rising freight costs due to disruptions in maritime routes, and potential declines in remittance inflows from Bangladeshi workers in the Gulf region. The results suggest that Bangladesh could face moderate to significant economic stress. Higher energy prices would raise production costs and fuel inflation, while trade disruptions could weaken exports, particularly in globally integrated sectors such as ready-made garments. A decline in remittances would reduce household consumption and increase pressure on the external balance. Combined, these shocks could lead to a short- to medium-term GDP decline of 1.2–3 percent, alongside downward pressure on real wages and slower export growth. The findings highlight the need for stronger economic resilience through energy diversification, improved trade logistics, broader export diversification, and balanced migration strategies. #SANEM #PolicyPaperSeries

📣The Call for Volunteers for 9SAEC 2026 is now open. Don't miss the opportunity to be part of one of South Asia's premier economic conferences. ⏰Deadline: 30 March 2026 🔗Registration link in comments. #SANEM #9SAEC #CallforVolunteers

The South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) has convened a Focus Group Discussion (FGD) on "Strengthening Bangladesh’s Solar Supply Chain” with the industry insiders today at SANEM office, Dhaka. The session comprehensively mapped out raw material sourcing and identified structural manufacturing bottlenecks within the sector. Participants engaged in in-depth discussions on the impact of current import duties and VAT on solar energy pricing, the feasibility of localizing component manufacturing, and the critical need to develop a future-ready technical workforce. The session began with opening remarks by Dr. Selim Raihan, Professor of Economics at the University of Dhaka and Executive Director of SANEM, and was moderated by Israt Hossain, Director of SANEM. The discussion brought together key stakeholders from the solar industry, including Mohammad Subail-Bin-Alam, Chief Operating Officer of Rancon Infrastructure & Engineering Limited; Shaikh Monowar Ahmed, Chief Operating Officer of Rahimafrooz Renewable Energy Limited; Sultan Mahmud, Senior Manager at Bengal Renewable Energy Limited; and Engr. DM Majibor Rahman, Managing Director of Solar Electro Bangladesh Ltd. #SANEM

Today, we celebrated International Women’s Day at the office with appreciation and gratitude for the incredible women who contribute to our vision and work every day. Happy International Women’s Day! #IWD2026 #SANEM

Marking International Women’s Day, SANEM stands in solidarity with this year’s UN theme, “Rights. Justice. Action. For ALL Women and Girls.” Ensuring women’s rights and removing structural barriers are essential for building inclusive economies and achieving sustainable development. Happy International Women’s Day! #IWD2026 #SANEM

The Business Standard covers SANEM's Executive Director, Dr. Selim Raihan's, insights on potential risks for Bangladesh from an expanded Middle East conflict. Dr. Raihan notes potential energy price shocks, inflationary pressures, and production cost risks, urging attention to energy diversification and reserve management. How prepared is Bangladesh? Find out here. Link in comments. #SANEM