Daniel Abrahams

If there was one grocery item that dominated headlines in 2025, it was butter. New Zealand produces world-class food, and because the rest of the world wants to eat what we make, there’s strong demand both here and overseas.     That’s been good for the New Zealand economy, but it has also pushed up global butter prices, which has flowed through to what people pay at the checkout.     Global dairy prices, though, are only part of the story. The New Zealand dollar has been near multi-year lows, and because key dairy commodities are traded in US dollars, currency movements can offset some of the benefit of global price falls before they ever reach our market.     On top of that, factors like transport and storage costs, seasonal demand, local production capacity and the economics of running a grocery store all influence the final price customers see.     Butter is a staple in New Zealand households, and when our local store owners saw prices getting out of step with already stretched family budgets, they chose to step in. For more than two years, many of our stores have been selling our own-brand Pam’s butter below cost. That’s helped ease pressure for families, but it has also meant stores absorbing part of that cost themselves.     Looking ahead, butter is likely to stay in focus this year. With global dairy prices trending down, that’s likely to be the general direction of travel. But given the mix of factors that shape what people pay at the checkout, it’s difficult to make precise calls six months or a year out.     As we approach the next contract period at the start of February, our focus remains on the things we can influence: buying well, running our stores efficiently, and delivering fair value for customers.      Behind the scenes, we’ll keep exploring options and ways to balance value for households with the long-term sustainability of our local stores – especially for the everyday staples New Zealand families rely on.  

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Three listed retailers released results recently, with three different outcomes and one clear message. Recent updates from Kogan.com, Baby Bunting and KMD Brands Limited show just how differently retailers can perform when growth isn’t backed by profit, brand strength and disciplined inventory management. Kogan is learning this the hard way. Despite chasing new revenue streams - marketplaces, subscriptions and even media, its share price is down sharply YTD. Margin pressure, costly customer acquisition and underperforming acquisitions reveal a simple truth: revenue growth without profitability or clear brand positioning doesn’t sustain value. Baby Bunting, meanwhile, is nudging margins up and driving healthier comparable sales. It’s not flashy growth, it’s disciplined. Stronger gross margin, better inventory control and a clear, defensible brand position in a needs-based category are paying dividends. KMD Brands sits somewhere in between, with analysts still cautious. Years of weak margin performance, heavy cost structures and brand relevance challenges highlight how hard a turnaround becomes when inventory, pricing power and brand clarity aren’t aligned. In today’s retail environment, profit beats volume, brand beats noise, and inventory discipline beats expansion for its own sake. Sustainable retail performance comes from clarity of position, control of costs and margins, and the courage to prioritise profitability over top-line headlines.

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Massive news in Australian retail today. Amazon Australia has officially partnered with Harris Farm Markets to launch same-day fresh food delivery. As Jessica Yun of the Age reports, the "missing piece" for Amazon in Australia has been a scalable, credible fresh food offering. They may have solved it not by building cold-chain warehouses from scratch, but by leveraging Harris Farm’s existing store network and premium brand equity. For the incumbents (Coles/Woolworths), this is a significant escalation. You now have the logistics speed of Amazon Prime combined with the quality reputation of Harris Farm. At ShopGrok, we are closely tracking the rollout. Here is what we will be watching closely for our customers: Price Parity: Is there a markup on Amazon vs. Harris Farm Direct? Or is Amazon subsidising the channel to drive Prime adoption? Range Overlap: How much of the 5,000+ SKU Harris Farm range actually makes it onto the Amazon storefront? Availability: With fulfilment coming from stores (like Leichhardt), how will stock-out rates compare to the major supermarkets' dark stores? The "online grocery wars" just entered a new phase. #retail #ecommerce #amazon #grocery #pricing #data

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The Commerce Commission has issued a 2 page fact sheet outlining what it expects from Woolworths and Foodstuffs in operating their wholesale supply businesses. What I find interesting, and support, is the increased focus on FMCG suppliers to also do their bit to support new Grocery entrants.

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Most brands didn’t lose Q4 because of demand. They lost it because search broke. Between September and October, Google rolled out major updates and we saw organic traffic drops of 40–60% across many Australian eCommerce brands, right before peak trading. The impact showed up fast. - Q4 underperformed. - Stock didn’t clear. - Cash flow tightened. But in most cases, the problem wasn’t product or pricing. It was Search. - SEO is still treated as a traffic channel. - Paid Search is treated as a safety net. - AI search isn’t being considered at all. So when organic revenue disappeared, many brands pushed harder on ads, hoping performance would recover. It didn’t. Margins just got thinner. What’s becoming clear now: Customers are already discovering and buying through AI-led journeys. Search behaviour has changed permanently. The brands that win in 2026 won’t be the ones spending more. They’ll be the ones building organic search, paid search, and AI search as one connected system, aligned to revenue and profit - not platforms. This isn’t about reacting faster. It’s about taking control of search before everyone else realises they’ve lost it.

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Klaviyo is going to launch WhatsApp marketing soon If you sell just to Australia, I think this will start off with a bang but get saturated very quickly The reason for this, is that too many brands will NOT segment by their customers preferred channel, and they will send email, sms + whatsapp all to the same user Consumers heading into Q4 will begin to now get bombarded on not just 2, but now THREE channels It's a great opportunity for brands who do it the right way + brands who sell internationally. But we will all need to be very careful in the way we approach our segmenting

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It seems a lot is happening in the supply chain and I've not seen anything local on the most recent news around Transaction ID's so thought I'd give a run down of why this is a big shift. It was a quiet but significant change in programmatic is set to impact Australia’s $17.2B digital ad market. Prebid has stopped supporting cross-exchange transaction IDs (TIDs). On paper, it’s a technical adjustment but in practice, it completely reshapes how supply path optimisation works in markets like ours. What changed? TIDs helped buyers avoid duplicate bids across exchanges. Without them, each bidder gets unique IDs, breaking the deduplication system many DSPs and agencies have relied on. Why this matters in Australia? - Market concentration: 90%+ of local ad impressions flow through Google (ACCC data). - Cost impact: around 27% (likely more) of spend is already lost to adtech fees so duplication adds more waste. - Publisher reliance: networks in Australia depend heavily on programmatic yield optimisation. - DSP disruption: platforms like The Trade Desk, which built strategies on deduplication and SPO, will need to rethink their approach here. The ripple effects - Publishers: Value of buyer-facing optimisation tools is reduced. - Advertisers: Higher risk of duplicate bidding = wasted spend. - DSPs: Competitive advantages around SPO weaken. - Market: Less counterbalance to Google’s dominance. Why? Prebid’s change is about protecting privacy by stopping cross-seller tracking. The cost is reduced efficiency and transparency which in a market already struggling with these areas is a concern. What happens next? - Deduplication isn’t automatic anymore → buyers will need new rules, DSP features, or independent tools to avoid wasted spend. - Smarter workflows required → teams must know where impressions come from, which ones are incremental, and how to cut duplication. I think this plays into centralisation and stronger ties to pubs and their tech. - Publishers reframe value → expect more curated PMPs, direct deals, and packaging that proves efficiency, not just reach. - Measurement gets sharper → log-level audits, supply path analysis, and independent checks become critical. Where Cake.Shop fits - we uncover the supply chain, show where duplication creeps in, and keep efficiency without losing privacy. This is a huge update and reinforces the need for better education especially on the buy side. Strong connection to publishers and the tech they chose to sell media - even if thats the old dog and bone. Lastly why uncovering transparency in the supply chain through speaking to people and using data is crucial.

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Listening to the Radio today. Australian shoppers are voting with their baskets—and this year they’ve handed a big win to supermarket private label. Consumer-voted results just landed and home brands dominated the Product of the Year (POY) Awards again—68% of all winners were private label, with Coles and Woolworths accounting for 27 of the 40 winning products. That’s a meaningful shift in where Australians see value, quality and innovation on shelf. For me, this confirms three things I’ve seen on the ground for years: Value + credibility beat legacy when budgets are tight. (CHOICE’s latest pricing still has ALDI as the price floor, with Coles and Woolworths close behind.) ABC Innovation is now a home-brand game—especially in wellness (high-protein, low/no sugar, gut health), premium tiers, and ready-meal convenience. The Range discipline matters. Coles’ SKU rationalisation (≈2,500 items) is classic “make space for winners,” and private label is where a lot of those winners are being incubated. What it means for Australian manufacturers (especially SMEs): Be a specialist, not a generalist. Bring one claim or format the retailer doesn’t already own. Design for own-brand from day one (costed specs, speed to brief, packaging sustainability). Wellness with proof beats wellness as a slogan (protein quality, sugar reduction, gut-health substantiation). Premiumisation is alive—but it must earn its keep (ingredient story, sensory delta, packaging that travels). Operational hygiene (FSSC/ISO/Halal, GS1, export-ready documentation) turns a first meeting into a fast listing. Am I surprised? Not really. In a cost-of-living cycle, shoppers reward products that solve—and right now, a lot of those solutions are wearing supermarket brands on the front. Congratulations to the teams delivering them. (Sources: POY 2026 coverage and commentary; CHOICE 2025 price basket; category trend notes. Food Mag, retailworldmagazine.com.au, Guardian, Canberra Times)

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🎙️ New Strategy Bites episode is live Last week, I sat down with Melanie Kansil, Chief Strategy Officer at MECCA Brands. Melanie started her career at McKinsey, then went on to build startups, work across multiple sectors, and now shapes strategy for one of Australia’s most loved consumer brands. We talk about: ✨ What the CSO role really looks like day to day ✨ What consulting prepares you brilliantly for (and what it doesn’t) ✨ The messy reality of moving from advising to owning strategy ✨ The career advice she wishes she’d had earlier ✨ The reality of consulting vs start-ups vs leading inside a top brand If you’re a consultant wondering whether industry, start-up, leadership, or a CSO role might be in your future, this episode is a must-listen. 🎧 Link in comments. If you found this helpful, please subscribe to Strategy Bites and share it with someone in your consulting or strategy community who’d enjoy it. #StratgegyBites #StrateyJobs

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